Table 5. Predictors of incident hypertension in patients on ART after April 2010 when tenofovir was introduced into first-line ART (n = 32,919).
| Variable | Number of events/person years | Incidence rate/100 person years (95% CI¥) | Crude hazard ratio (95% CI¥) | Adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI¥) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | ||||
| Female | 1,781/31,985 | 5.57 (5.31–5.83) | Reference | Reference |
| Male | 1,426/19,936 | 7.15 (6.79–7.53) | 1.28 (1.19–1.37) | 1.48 (1.28–1.71) |
| Age (years) at ART* initiation | ||||
| 18–24 | 81/2,970 | 2.73 (2.17–3.39) | 0.50 (0.40–0.63) | 0.38 (0.22–0.67) |
| 25–29 | 235/8,477 | 2.77 (2.43–3.15) | 0.54 (0.47–0.62) | 0.58 (0.44–0.76) |
| 30–39 | 1,229/23,659 | 5.19 (4.91–5.49) | Reference | Reference |
| 40–49 | 1,054/13,121 | 8.03 (7.56–8.53) | 1.63 (1.50–1.77) | 1.55 (1.33–1.80) |
| ≥50 | 608/3,693 | 16.46 (15.18–17.83) | 2.76 (2.50–3.05) | 2.18 (1.78–2.67) |
| Body mass index (kg/m2) at ART* initiation | ||||
| <18 | 205/3,958 | 5.18 (4.49–5.94) | 0.85 (0.73–0.99) | 0.88 (0.68–1.12) |
| 18.0–24.9 | 1,257/23,553 | 5.34 (5.05–5.64) | Reference | Reference |
| 25.0–29.9 | 525/7,352 | 7.14 (6.54–7.78) | 1.38 (1.2.4–1.53) | 1.65 (1.39–1.95) |
| 30.0–34.9 | 240/2,602 | 9.22 (8.09–10.47) | 1.77 (1.54–2.04) | 2.35 (1.87–2.95) |
| ≥35 | 103/1,020 | 10.09 (8.24–12.24) | 1.92 (1.57–2.35) | 2.15 (1.50–3.07) |
| Pre-hypertension at ART* initiation | ||||
| No | 2,477/45,945 | 5.39 (5.18–5.61) | Reference | Reference |
| Yes | 730/5,976 | 12.22 (11.35–13.14) | 2.62 (2.44–2.81) | 2.72 (2.38–3.11) |
| Non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor | ||||
| efavirenz | 2,951/48,374 | 6.10 (5.88–6.32) | Reference | Reference |
| nevirapine | 239/3,249 | 7.36 (6.45–8.35) | 1.20 (1.05–1.37) | 1.91 (1.46–2.50) |
| Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor | ||||
| tenofovir | 2,262/38,939 | 5.81 (5.57–6.05) | Reference | Reference |
| zidovudine | 123/1,770 | 6.95 (5.77–8.29) | 1.12 (0.93–1.36) | 1.20 (0.75–1.93) |
| stavudine | 822/11,211 | 7.33 (6.84–7.85) | 1.31 (1.21–1.42) | 1.33 (1.13–1.58) |
| CD4 count at ART* initiation (cells/μl) | ||||
| 0–49 | 555/8,174 | 6.79 (6.24–7.38) | 1.16 (0.97–1.38) | 1.23 (0.91–1.67) |
| 50–99 | 440/6,277 | 7.01 (6.37–7.70) | 1.28 (1.06–1.53) | 1.19 (0.87–1.63) |
| 100–199 | 664/11,359 | 5.85 (5.41–6.31) | 1.19 (1.01–1.42) | 1.10 (0.83–1.46) |
| 200–349 | 795/14,031 | 5.67 (5.28–6.07) | 1.16 (0.97–1.38) | 1.09 (0.82–1.45) |
| 350+ | 157/2,873 | 5.46 (4.64–6.39) | Reference | Reference |
| WHO€ stage at ART* initiation | ||||
| I/II | 1,134/18,724 | 6.06 (5.71–6.42) | Reference | Reference |
| III/IV | 729/11,365 | 6.41 (5.96–6.90) | 0.96 (0.88–1.06) | 1.03 (0.89–1.19) |
| Hemoglobin at ART* initiation (g/dL) | ||||
| <10 | 622/8,861 | 7.02 (6.48–7.59) | 1.01 (0.92–1.10) | 1.24 (1.04–1.47) |
| ≥10 | 2,127/36,047 | 5.90 (5.65–6.16) | Reference | Reference |
| Creatinine Clearance (mL/min/1.73m2) | ||||
| <60 | 84/512 | 16.40 (13.08–20.31) | 2.11 (1.69–2.64) | 1.70 (1.18–2.46) |
| 60–89 | 234/2,043 | 11.46 (10.03–13.02) | 1.81 (1.58–2.08) | 1.34 (1.06–1.70) |
| ≥90 | 1,844/32,827 | 5.62 (5.36–5.88) | Reference | Reference |
*ART = antiretroviral therapy;
€WHO = World Health Organization;
¥CI = confidence interval. All predictors are measured at ART initiation. Model adjusted for gender, BMI, age, NRTI, NNRTI, WHO stage, CD4 count at ART initiation, hemoglobin levels at ART initiation, creatinine clearance. Fine and Gray’s competing risk regression used controlling for death as a competing risk for incident hypertension