Appendix II.
Regression coefficients predicting likelihood that a household sends an international migrant in 5 year window prior to Censu
| A. Model with interactions between climate variables, and census year | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deviations 1–1.99 SDs above/below normal | Deviations 2+ SDs above/below normal | |||||||||||
| Temperature increase | Rainfall deficits | Temperature increase | Rainfall deficits | |||||||||
| b | (S.E.) | sig. | b | (S.E.) | sig. | b | (S.E.) | sig. | b | (S.E.) | sig. | |
| Climate var. main effect | −0.0025 | (0.0022) | −0.0139 | (0.0030) | *** | 0.0084 | (0.0046) | † | −0.0342 | (0.0141) | * | |
| 2-way interactions both climate vars. | −0.0011 | (0.0003) | *** | −0.0011 | (0.0003) | *** | 0.0018 | (0.0027) | 0.0018 | (0.0027) | ||
| 2-way interact, climate var. & year | 0.0070 | (0.0038) | † | 0.0104 | (0.0034) | * * | −0.0107 | (0.0051) | * | 0.0573 | (0.0233) | * |
| 3-way interact, both climate vars. & year | −0.0004 | (0.0005) | −0.0004 | (0.0005) | 0.0199 | (0.0044) | *** | 0.0199 | (0.0044) | *** | ||
| B. Model with interactions between climate variables, census year, and marginalization index | ||||||||||||
| b | (S.E.) | sig. | b | (S.E.) | sig. | b | (S.E.) | sig. | b | (S.E.) | sig. | |
| Climate var. main effect | −0.0023 | (0.0023) | −0.0130 | (0.0030) | *** | 0.0096 | (0.0047) | * | −0.0422 | (0.0154) | ** | |
| 2-way interactions both climate vars. | −0.0015 | (0.0003) | −0.0015 | (0.0003) | *** | −0.0016 | (0.0031) | −0.0016 | (0.0031) | |||
| 2-way interact, climate var. & year | 0.0045 | (0.0039) | 0.0163 | (0.0035) | *** | −0.0076 | (0.0054) | 0.0649 | (0.0256) | * | ||
| 2-way interact, climate & margin. | 0.0071 | (0.0023) | ** | −0.0120 | (0.0031) | *** | 0.0097 | (0.0049) | * | −0.0585 | (0.0156) | *** |
| 3-way interact, both climate vars. & year | 0.0003 | (0.0005) | 0.0003 | (0.0005) | 0.0286 | (0.0048) | *** | 0.0286 | (0.0048) | *** | ||
| 3-way interact, climate, year, & margin. | −0.0074 | (0.0040) | † | 0.0041 | (0.0039) | −0.0144 | (0.0058) | * | −0.0943 | (0.0283) | *** | |
| -way int. bet. climate variables & margin. | −0.0003 | (0.0006) | −0.0003 | (0.0006) | −0.0048 | (0.0055) | −0.0048 | (0.0055) | ||||
| C. Model with interactions between climate variables, census year, and migration intensity index | ||||||||||||
| b | (S.E.) | sig. | b | (S.E.) | sig. | b | (S.E.) | sig. | b | (S.E.) | sig. | |
| Climate var. main effect | 0.0024 | (0.0026) | −0.0174 | (0.0032) | *** | 0.0031 | (0.0052) | −0.0506 | (0.0159) | ** | ||
| 2-way interactions both climate vars. | −0.0014 | (0.0003) | −0.0014 | (0.0003) | *** | 0.0023 | (0.0033) | 0.0023 | (0.0033) | |||
| 2-way interact, climate var. & year | 0.0051 | (0.0041) | 0.0132 | (0.0036) | *** | −0.0020 | (0.0057) | 0.0265 | (0.0267) | |||
| 2-way interact, climate & mig. intensity | −0.0030 | (0.0017) | † | 0.0183 | (0.0025) | *** | 0.0139 | (0.0037) | *** | 0.0408 | (0.0108) | *** |
| 3-way interact, both climate vars. & year | −0.0004 | (0.0005) | −0.0004 | (0.0005) | 0.0168 | (0.0050) | *** | 0.0168 | (0.0050) | *** | ||
| way interact, climate, year, & mig. intens. | −0.0036 | (0.0033) | −0.0132 | (0.0032) | *** | −0.0097 | (0.0048) | * | 0.0677 | (0.0257) | ** | |
| y int. bet. climate variables & mig. intens. | −0.0015 | (0.0005) | ** | −0.0015 | (0.0005) | ** | 0.0114 | (0.0049) | * | 0.0114 | (0.0049) | * |
***
p < 0.001
**
p < 0.01
*
p < 0.05
†
0.10
ΦΦΦ
Model includes all additional controls included in Model B.III, Table 3.