Table 2.
Standardized regression coefficients predicting the likelihood that a household sends an international migrant in 5 year window prior to Census.
| I | II | III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| βstd | (S.E.) | Sig. | βstd | (S.E.) | Sig. | βstd | (S.E.) | Sig. | βstd | (S.E.) | Sig. | βstd | (S.E.) | Sig. | βstd | (S.E.) | Sig. | βstd | (S.E.) | Sig. | βstd | (S.E.) | Sig. | |
| Temp. 1–1.99 SDs above long-term mean | −0.038 | (0.002) | −0.047 | (0.002) | −0.093 | (0.002) | † | 0.065 | (0.002) | −0.016 | (0.002) | −0.022 | (0.002) | −0.111 | (0.002) | * | 0.032 | (0.002) | ||||||
| Precip. 1–1.99 SDs below long-term mean | −0.557 | (0.002) | *** | −0.594 | (0.002) | *** | −0.062 | (0.002) | −0.496 | (0.002) | *** | −0.605 | (0.002) | *** | −0.621 | (0.002) | *** | −0.131 | (0.002) | * | −0.199 | (0.002) | *** | |
| Temp, × Precip 1 -1.99 SDs | −0.252 | (0.000) | *** | −0.261 | (0.000) | *** | −0.193 | (0.000) | *** | −0.320 | (0.000) | *** | −0.265 | (0.000) | *** | −0.274 | (0.000) | *** | −0.177 | (0.000) | *** | −0.210 | (0.000) | *** |
| Temp. 2+ SDs above long-term mean | −0.136 | (0.003) | † | −0.104 | (0.003) | −0.124 | (0.003) | * | 0.071 | (0.003) | −0.122 | (0.003) | † | −0.107 | (0.003) | −0.098 | (0.003) | −0.015 | (0.003) | |||||
| Precip. 2+ SDs below long-term mean | −0.355 | (0.014) | *** | −0.352 | (0.013) | *** | −0.256 | (0.011) | *** | −0.297 | (0.013) | *** | −0.344 | (0.014) | *** | −0.338 | (0.013) | *** | −0.252 | (0.011) | *** | −0.159 | (0.012) | ** |
| Temp, × Precip 2+ SDs | 0.095 | (0.003) | † | 0.111 | (0.003) | † | 0.103 | (0.002) | * | 0.200 | (0.003) | *** | 0.091 | (0.003) | 0.102 | (0.003) | † | 0.116 | (0.002) | * | 0.185 | (0.002) | *** | |
| International migration intensity index (z-score) | 3.023 | (0.012) | *** | 2.966 | (0.012) | *** | 2.653 | (0.012) | *** | |||||||||||||||
| Marginalization index (z-score) | 0.498 | (0.026) | *** | 0.259 | (0.029) | * | 0.490 | (0.020) | *** | 0.194 | (0.021) | * | ||||||||||||
| Economic diversity index (0–1) | −0.038 | (0.102) | 0.052 | (0.102) | −0.161 | (0.087) | * | −0.241 | (0.085) | *** | ||||||||||||||
| State GDP growth, window relative to prior 5 years (%) | 0.158 | (0.007) | *** | 0.147 | (0.007) | ** | −0.041 | (0.007) | 0.052 | (0.007) | ||||||||||||||
| Municipal farmland that is irrigated (%) | −0.215 | (0.001) | * | −0.148 | (0.001) | −0.120 | (0.001) | † | 0.048 | (0.001) | ||||||||||||||
| Area of farmland planted with com (sqm /10 ha) | 0.149 | (0.018) | 0.133 | (0.018) | 0.157 | (0.012) | * | −0.105 | (0.012) | |||||||||||||||
| Area of farmland planted with wheat (sqm /10 ha) | −0.098 | (0.097) | −0.078 | (0.097) | −0.005 | (0.061) | −0.143 | (0.070) | † | |||||||||||||||
| Area of farmland planted with soybeans (sqm /10 ha) | −0.131 | (0.058) | −0.125 | (0.058) | 0.122 | (0.036) | * | 0.322 | (0.035) | *** | ||||||||||||||
| 2,500 – 14,999 inhab. in locality (REF = less than 2,500) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Municipal land classified as urban (%) | −0.611 | (0.006) | *** | −0.560 | (0.006) | *** | −0.016 | (0.004) | −0.196 | (0.004) | ** | |||||||||||||
| HH members working in primary sector activities (%) | 0.085 | (0.000) | * | 0.086 | (0.000) | * | 0.061 | (0.000) | 0.076 | (0.000) | † | |||||||||||||
| HH members employed (%) | −0.813 | (0.000) | *** | −0.837 | (0.000) | *** | −0.784 | (0.000) | *** | −0.804 | (0.000) | *** | −0.815 | (0.000) | *** | −0.838 | (0.000) | *** | −0.795 | (0.000) | *** | −0.800 | (0.000) | *** |
| Asset index (z-score) | 2.011 | (0.018) | *** | 2.277 | (0.019) | *** | 1.709 | (0.017) | *** | 1.990 | (0.018) | *** | 2.057 | (0.018) | *** | 2.288 | (0.019) | *** | 2.046 | (0.019) | *** | 2.066 | (0.019) | *** |
| HH is owned by one of its members | 0.508 | (0.026) | *** | 0.452 | (0.026) | *** | 0.544 | (0.026) | *** | 0.515 | (0.026) | *** | 0.499 | (0.026) | *** | 0.449 | (0.026) | *** | 0.477 | (0.026) | *** | 0.476 | (0.026) | *** |
| Schooling of HH head (years) | −1.278 | (0.003) | *** | −1.243 | (0.003) | *** | −1.195 | (0.003) | *** | −1.272 | (0.003) | *** | −1.277 | (0.003) | *** | −1.242 | (0.003) | *** | −1.157 | (0.003) | *** | −1.178 | (0.003) | *** |
| HH income (in 1,000s MXN) | −0.051 | (0.001) | −0.025 | (0.001) | −0.023 | (0.001) | −0.054 | (0.001) | −0.046 | (0.001) | −0.024 | (0.001) | −0.002 | (0.001) | −0.003 | (0.001) | ||||||||
| Age of HH head (years) | −1.251 | (0.001) | *** | −1.242 | (0.001) | *** | −1.254 | (0.001) | *** | −1.262 | (0.001) | *** | −1.250 | (0.001) | *** | −1.242 | (0.001) | *** | −1.245 | (0.001) | *** | −1.268 | (0.001) | *** |
| Children under 5 in HH (No.) | −0.880 | (0.015) | *** | −0.888 | (0.015) | *** | −0.879 | (0.015) | *** | −0.888 | (0.015) | *** | −0.883 | (0.015) | *** | −0.889 | (0.015) | *** | −0.891 | (0.015) | *** | −0.889 | (0.015) | *** |
| 2010 Census (REF = 2010 Census) | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||||||||||
| State fixed effects? | No | No | No | Yes | No | No | No | Yes | ||||||||||||||||
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| N (households) | 305,290 | 305,290 | 305,290 | 305,290 | 305,290 | 305,290 | 305,290 | 305,290 | ||||||||||||||||
***
p < 0.001
**
p < 0.01
*
p < 0.05
†
0.10
Source: pooled 2000 & 2010 Mexican Census long form sample data from IPUMS. see Appendix I for specific variable sources.