Table 1. Impact of mixing patterns on probability of elimination.

Scenario	Probability of elimination (range 0–1)a
	Random MDA participationb	Semi-systematic MDA participationb	Fully systematic MDA participationb
40% pre-control mf prevalence in age 5+ and 5 rounds of annual MDA at 65% coverage
k = 3.5 (one fly population)	0.98	0.97	0.85
k = 3.5, fH = 0.50, mixt = 0.8	0.67	0.60	0.52
k = 3.5, fH = 0.25, mixt = 0.8	0.02	0.03	0.01
k = 3.5, fH = 0.10, mixt = 0.8	0.01	0.00	0.00
k = 1.0 (one fly population)	0.42	0.33	0.27
50% pre-control mf prevalence in age 5+ and 7 rounds of annual MDA at 65% coverage
k = 3.5 (one fly population)	0.99	1.00	0.93
k = 3.5, fH = 0.50, mixt = 0.8	0.65	0.51	0.25
k = 3.5, fH = 0.25, mixt = 0.8	0.04	0.03	0.00
k = 3.5, fH = 0.10, mixt = 0.8	0.02	0.02	0.01
k = 1.0 (one fly population)	0.28	0.32	0.14
60% pre-control mf prevalence in age 5+ and 11 rounds of annual MDA at 65% coverage
k = 3.5 (one fly population)	1.00	1.00	0.98
k = 3.5, fH = 0.50, mixt = 0.8	0.99	0.86	0.38
k = 3.5, fH = 0.25, mixt = 0.8	0.54	0.25	0.06
k = 3.5, fH = 0.10, mixt = 0.8	0.26	0.21	0.08
k = 1.0 (one fly population)	0.57	0.39	0.06

^a Elimination is defined as zero mf prevalence 50 years after stopping MDA; probability of elimination is defined as the fraction of 200 repeated simulations that meet aforementioned criterion.

^b Random MDA participation means that every eligible individual is just as likely to participate; fully systematic participation means that always the same eligible persons participate; semi-systematic participation is a mix of random and fully systematic participation.