Table 2.

HOVON data: Posterior distribution of the hazard ratio of the treatment effect in the HOVON 42A trial, using different methods for including historical data.

Method	Mean	Standard deviation	2.5%	97.5%
Current data	1.118	0.132	0.882	1.398
Pooled data	0.941	0.083	0.787	1.113
Pocock’s method	1.008	0.100	0.823	1.219
Power prior with α = 0.5	0.971	0.090	0.805	1.156
MPP	0.979	0.095	0.809	1.178
MAP approach	1.066	0.127	0.843	1.338
Robust MAP approach	1.094	0.125	0.871	1.361
Method of Murray et al.	1.107	0.129	0.876	1.380
TTP approach	0.941	0.083	0.787	1.113