Table 3.

HOVON data: Posterior distributions of parameters for the amount of borrowing from historical data, using different methods for including historical data.

Method	Mean	Standard deviation	2.5%	97.5%
Pocock’s method
$\text{exp}(\delta )$ for HOVON 29	1.117	0.070	0.985	1.261
$\text{exp}(\delta )$ for HOVON 42	1.047	0.069	0.919	1.188
MPP
α	0.527	0.240	0.120	0.968
MAP approach
${\sigma }_{\eta }$	0.198	0.166	0.014	0.648
$\text{exp}({\eta }_k)$ for HOVON 29	1.097	0.183	0.810	1.527
$\text{exp}({\eta }_k)$ for HOVON 42	1.031	0.168	0.749	1.419
$\text{exp}({\eta }_k)$ for HOVON 42A	0.922	0.147	0.640	1.224
Robust MAP approach
${\sigma }_{\eta }$	0.160	0.292	0.003	0.741
$\text{exp}({\eta }_k)$ for HOVON 42A	0.953	0.110	0.683	1.145
Method of Murray et al.
σAge	0.442	0.590	0.071	1.749
${\sigma }_{\alpha }$	0.071	0.000	0.071	0.071

Note: An explanation of the symbols can be found in the text.