Table 1.
Effect Predicted | Problem Statement | Categorical Representation | Ordinal Representation | Interval Representation |
---|---|---|---|---|
Standard Framing Problem | ||||
Gain Frame | 200 people will be saved | some chance that some are saved | more chance that fewer are saved | 200 are saved |
there is a 1/3 probability that 600 people will be saved and a 2/3 probability that no people will be saved | some chance that some are saved and some chance that none are saved | less chance that more are saved and some chance that none are saved | 200 are saved | |
Loss Frame | 400 people will die | some chance that some die | more chance that fewer die | 400 die |
there is a 1/3 probability that nobody will die, and a 2/3 probability that 600 people will die | some chance that some die, and some chance that none die | less chance that more die and some chance that none die | 400 die | |
Allais Gambles | ||||
Gamble 1 | 1 million dollars with certainty | some money with some chance | more chance that some are saved | 1 million dollars |
89% chance of 1 million dollars, 10% chance of 5 million dollars, and a 1% chance of 0 dollars | some chance of some money, some chance of some money, or some chance of no money | some chance of some money, less chance of more money, some chance of no money | 1.39 million dollars | |
Gamble 2 | 1 million dollars with 11% probability and $0 with 89% probability | some chance of some money and some chance of no money | less money with a large chance, and no money with a small chance | 0.11 million dollars |
5 million dollars with 10% probability and $0 with 90% probability | some chance of some money and some chance of no money | more money with a large chance, and no money with a small chance | 0.50 million dollars | |
Zero-complement truncated framing problems | ||||
Gain Frame | 200 people will be saved | some chance that some are saved | more chance that fewer are saved | 200 are saved |
there is a 1/3 probability that 600 people will be saved | some chance that some are saved | less chance that more are saved | 200 are saved | |
Loss Frame | 400 people will die | some chance that some die | more chance that fewer die | 400 die |
there is a 2/3 probability that 600 people will die | some chance that some die | less chance that more die | 400 die | |
Nonzero-complement truncated framing problems | ||||
Gain Frame | 200 people will be saved | some chance that some are saved | more chance that fewer are saved | 200 are saved |
there is a 2/3 probability that no people will be saved | some chance that none are saved | some chance that none are saved | 200 are saved | |
Loss Frame | 400 people will die | some chance that some die | more chance that fewer die | 400 die |
there is a 1/3 probability that nobody will die | some chance that none die | some chance that none die | 400 die | |
Certain-option disambiguated problems | ||||
Gain Frame | 200 people will be saved and 400 people will not be saved | some chance that some are saved and some chance that some are not saved | more chance that fewer are saved and some chance that some are not saved | 200 are saved |
there is a 1/3 probability that 600 people will be saved and a 2/3 probability that no people will be saved | some chance that some are saved and some chance that none are saved | less chance that more are saved and some chance that none are saved | 200 are saved | |
Loss Frame | 400 people will die and 200 people will not die | some chance that some die and some chance that some do not die | more chance that fewer die and some chance that some do not die | 400 die |
there is a 1/3 probability that nobody will die, and a 2/3 probability that 600 people will die | some chance that some die, and some chance that none die | less chance that more die and some chance that none die | 400 die | |
“400 not saved” certain-option disambiguated and truncated problems | ||||
Gain Frame | 400 people will not be saved | some chance that some are not saved | some chance that some are not saved | 200 are saved |
there is a 1/3 probability that 600 people will be saved and a 2/3 probability that no people will be saved | some chance that some are saved and some chance that none are saved | less chance that more are saved and some chance that none are saved | 200 are saved | |
200 people will not die | some chance that some do not die | some chance that some do not die | 400 die | |
Loss Frame | there is a 1/3 probability that nobody will die, and a 2/3 probability that 600 people will die | some chance that some die, and some chance that none die | less chance that more die and some chance that none die | 400 die |
Certain-option disambiguated, zero-complement truncated problems | ||||
Gain Frame | 200 people will be saved and 400 people will not be saved | some chance that some are saved and some chance that some are not saved | more chance that fewer are saved and some chance that some are not saved | 200 are saved |
there is a 1/3 probability that 600 people will be saved | some chance that some are saved | less chance that more are saved | 200 are saved | |
Loss Frame | 400 people will die and 200 people will not die | some chance that some die and some chance that some do not die | more chance that fewer die and some chance that some do not die | 400 die |
there is a 2/3 probability that 600 people will die | some chance that some die | less chance that more die | 400 die | |
“400 not saved vs. 2/3 chance that 600 not saved” truncation problem | ||||
Gain Frame | 400 people will not be saved | some chance that some are not saved | more chance that fewer are not saved | 200 are saved |
there is a 2/3 probability that 600 people will not be saved | some chance that some are not saved | less chance that more are not saved | 200 are saved | |
Loss Frame | 200 people will not die | some chance that some do not die | more chance that fewer do not die | 400 die |
there is a 1/3 probability that 600 people will not die | some chance that some do not die | less chance that more do not die | 400 die |
Note. Text in bold indicates a given representation’s preferred option. If no option is bolded, the corresponding representation is indifferent. The overall preferred outcome is indicated in bold and, if the preference is strong (preferred by more than one mental representation), it is also underlined.