Table 3.

Parameter estimates for disease progression model for National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores, incidence and time‐to‐event models for dropout and haemorrhagic transformation

Model	Parameter	Estimate (% relative standard error )
DIS	D0	−0.074 (81.1)
	AMP	−1.245 (17.4)
	SLO (h−1)	0.536 (27.6)
	ω2 D0 [CV (%)]	105.3 (6.26)
	ω2 AMP [CV (%)]	164.7 (19.6)
DROP INC	θ 0	−3.468 (13.4)
	θ NIHSS0	0.127 (18.4)
	θ INF	1.115 (31.9)
DROP TTE	γ	1.325 (25.2)
	λ	0.205 (30.6)
	θ CNIHSS0	0.469 (25.2)
HEM	γ	0.0915 (24.3)
	λ	7.19 *10−6 (36.1)
	θ NIHSS	0.056 (34.6)

AMP, amplitude; CV, coefficient of variation; DIS, disease progression model for NIHSS scores; DROP_INC, incidence model for dropout; DROP_TTE, TTE model for dropout; D(t), longitudinal change of latent disease severity; HEM, TTE model for haemorrhagic transformation; NIHSS0, initial NIHSS score; SLO, slope of D(t); TTE, time to event

For DIS, the model is as follows: D(t) = D0 + AMP · (1 − e^{−SLO · t})

For DROP_INC, DROP_TTE and HEM, the models are as follows:

P(Y = 1) = $\frac{exp\left({\theta }_0+{\mathrm{\theta }}_{\text{NIHSS}0}·\text{NIHSS}0+{\mathrm{\theta }}_{\mathrm{INF}}·\mathrm{INF}\right)}{1+exp\left({\theta }_0+{\mathrm{\theta }}_{\text{NIHSS}0}·\text{NIHSS}0+{\mathrm{\theta }}_{\mathrm{INF}}·\mathrm{INF}\right)}$ for DROP_INC

h(t) = λ ·  exp (γ · t) ·  exp (θ_CNIHSS0 · CNIHSS0) for DROP_TTE

h(t) = λ · γ · t^γ − 1 ·  exp (θ_PNIHSS · PNIHSS) for HEM

where INF denotes location of infarction, NIHSS0 denotes observed initial NIHSS score; CNIHSS0 denotes categorized NIHSS0, defined as CNIHSS0 = 1 for NIHSS0 ≤ 15, CNIHSS0 = 2 for 16 ≤ NIHSS0 ≤ 20 and CNIHSS0 = 3 for NIHSS0 ≥ 21; and PNIHSS denotes predicted NIHSS score