Table 5.
Summary of death rate errors across all regions of Australia and both 2006–2011 and 2011–2016 periods
| Method | Absolute Total Error (overall mortality) | Total Absolute Error (mortality age profiles) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | 95% | Median | 95% | |
| National Death Rates | 0.035 | 0.105 | 0.054 | 0.117 |
| SMR Scaling | 0.020 | 0.091 | 0.048 | 0.128 |
| Broad Age SMR Scaling | 0.016 | 0.066 | 0.040 | 0.087 |
| Mortality Surface | 0.017 | 0.067 | 0.038 | 0.083 |
| Brass Relational | 0.020 | 0.072 | 0.038 | 0.088 |
| Rate Ratio Scaling | 0.018 | 0.065 | 0.039 | 0.087 |
| Broad Age Rate Ratio Scaling | 0.021 | 0.074 | 0.042 | 0.092 |
| TOPALS | 0.019 | 0.071 | 0.040 | 0.085 |
Note: Absolute Total Error and Total Absolute Error measures were calculated for each method taking into account errors across all regions and both forecast periods