Table 1.

The parameters of the basic model and model modifications. If the value of a parameter is a single integer, the parameter was hold fixed during the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. All other parameters were optimised within the given range. Large numbers on the left group parameters that are unique to a certain model modification. See methods for references and validation of the defined parameter ranges.

	Symbol	Definition	Value/Range	Units
	β	transmission rate	0.1x10−4 to 0.4x10−3	bird−1 day−1
	γ	recovery rate	1/12 to 1/3	day−1
	σ	immune rate	0.0013 to 0.013	bird−1 day−1
	η	background transmission rate	10−5	day−1
	Bmean	mean day of birth	135 to 220	day of the year
	Bsd	standard deviation of birth	0.5 to 25	days
	Nhatch	number of hatchlings per pair	0.63	individuals
	Prmig	ratio of migrants to residents	0.5 to 4	proportion
	Amean	mean arrival day of migrants	240 to 335	day of the year
	Asd	standard deviation of arrival of migrants	0.5 to 50	days
	m	mortality rate	0.315/365	bird−1 day−1
1	Npulse	number of hatchlings per pair	4	individuals
	mjuv	juvenile mortality rate	estimated	bird−1 day−1
2	σs	short-term immunity rate	0.0013 to 0.066	bird−1 day−1
3	b	susceptible migrants	5 to 75	percent
4	βM	transmission rate in migrants	0.1x10−4 to 0.3x10−2	bird−1 day−1
	βR	transmission rate in residents	0.1x10−4 to 0.4x10−3	bird−1 day−1
5	Rmean	mean of migratory replacement	240 to 288	day of the year
	Ramp	proportion of migratory replacement	0.05 to 0.6	proportion
	Rslope	slope of migratory replacement	2 to 25	days
	Rkurt	kurtosis of migratory replacement	2 to 3	days