Table 2.

Calibration—predicted and observed deaths, full sample and sub-groups

Follow-up	5-Year					10-Year
Group	N	A	P	Relative Mort. Diff. (%)	Absolute Mort. Diff. (% point)	N	A	P	Relative Mort. Diff. (%)	Absolute Mort. Diff. (% point)
Total	32,357	4684	4939	5.44	0.79	17,106	5260	5157	−1.96	−0.6
Age <35	426	70	74	5.47	0.94	249	71	79	11.77	3.21
35–49	5851	547	664	21.35	2	3229	621	711	14.44	2.79
50–64	13,700	1246	1418	13.83	1.26	7227	1468	1514	3.11	0.64
65–74	7645	1211	1220	0.71	0.12	3805	1366	1291	−5.5	−1.97
≥75	4735	1610	1563	−2.91	−0.99	2596	1734	1562	−9.9	−6.63
Nodes=0	20,450	2004	2168	8.18	0.8	10,377	2419	2342	−3.22	−0.75
1	4798	692	712	2.83	0.41	2564	783	765	−2.25	−0.7
2–4	4131	886	874	−1.38	−0.3	2414	999	960	−3.9	−1.62
5–9	1492	471	480	1.95	0.6	887	491	476	−3.09	−1.69
10+	1271	559	627	12.02	5.32	724	486	532	9.43	6.32
Tumour size <10	4552	304	338	11.17	0.75	2284	397	371	−6.41	−1.12
10–19	12,289	1155	1280	10.75	1.01	6240	1410	1397	−0.88	−0.21
20–29	8779	1422	1431	0.67	0.11	4736	1654	1532	−7.39	−2.58
30–49	5161	1268	1279	0.88	0.22	2983	1313	1329	1.26	0.54
≥50	1577	535	611	14.17	4.81	863	486	527	8.31	4.71
Grade I	4948	364	335	−7.79	−0.58	2796	554	468	−15.54	−3.07
II	15,058	1680	1801	7.16	0.8	7727	2160	2056	−4.84	−1.35
III	12,351	2640	2803	6.16	1.32	6583	2546	2634	3.43	1.33
Screen	21,059	3909	3929	0.52	0.09	11,919	4349	4165	−4.24	−1.55
Sympt.	11,298	775	1009	30.26	2.07	5187	911	992	8.94	1.57
ER−	5450	1437	1675	16.6	4.37	3037	1237	1307	5.62	2.29
ER+	26,907	3247	3263	0.5	0.06	14,069	4023	3850	−4.29	−1.23

A actual deaths, P predicted deaths, Relative Mort. Diff, difference between actual and predicted as percentage of actual, Absolute Mort. Diff. difference in 5/10-year mortality (% point)