Table 1. Model probabilities.

Parameter	Probability (base-case value)	Lower and upper bounds	Source
Probabilities common to all strategies
Prevalence of HF among patients suspected with this condition	0.5	0.45; 0.55	Expert opinion
Probability of referral to pulmonary department if negative test	0.1	0.0; 0.2	Expert opinion
Probability of referral to pulmonary department if positive test	0.0	0.0; 0.0	Expert opinion
Probability of referral to hospital if new GP visit with false negative test result	1.0	–	Expert opinion
Clinical diagnosis strategy
Sensitivity	0.56	0.51; 0.61	National Clinical Guideline Centre (UK)10
Specificity	0.68	0.62; 0.73	National Clinical Guideline Centre (UK)10
Probability of referral to hospital if negative test	0.6	0.4; 0.8	Expert opinion
Probability of referral to hospital if positive test	1.0	–	Expert opinion
Probability of spirometry	0.9	0.8; 1	Expert opinion and online survey
POC test strategy
Sensitivity	0.9	0.85; 0.95	Schäfer et al 11 Bertsch et al 12
Specificity	0.65	0.6; 0.7	Schäfer et al 11 Bertsch et al 12
Probability of referral to hospital if negative test	0.4	0.3; 0.5	Expert opinion
Probability of referral to hospital if positive test	1.0	–	Expert opinion
Probability of spirometry	0.2	0.1; 0.3	Expert opinion and online survey
Hospital test strategy
Sensitivity	0.9	0.85; 0.95	Schäfer et al 11 Bertsch et al12
Specificity	0.65	0.6; 0.7	Schäfer et al,11 Bertsch et al 12
Probability of referral to hospital if negative test	0.4	0.3; 0.5	Expert opinion
Probability of referral to hospital if positive test	1.0	–	Expert opinion
Probability of phone consultation if positive test	0.2	0.1; 0.3	Estimate based on online survey
Probability of spirometry	0.8	0.7; 0.9	Expert opinion and online survey

HF = heart failure.