Table 4.
Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for adolescent baseline error-related brain activity and social anxiety symptoms predicting new-onset GAD at the 1.5 year follow-up assessment and applied in parallel using an “or” rule and using an “and” rule. The ΔERN was converted to a positive number, such that more positive values indicated enhanced error-related brain activity in order to better compare it with other risk measures. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted to determine area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity values. The table includes values for a range of cut-off scores for the continuous ΔERN and social anxiety symptoms. AUC = area under the curve, SEN = sensitivity, SPEC = specificity, PPV = positive predictive value, NPV = negative predictive value. In parallel testing, using the “or” rule, if either test is positive, then the disease is present. In parallel testing, using the “and” rule, if both tests are positive, then the disease is present.
| Baseline Assessment | Applied in Parallel “or” | Applied in Parallel “and” | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ΔERN | Social Anxiety Symptoms | SEN | SPEC | PPV | NPV | SEN | SPEC | PPV | NPV |
| +2.0 SD | +2.0 SD | 34.2 | 93.3 | 24.2 | 95.8 | 2.8 | 99.9 | 63.7 | 94.3 |
| +2.0 SD | +1.5 SD | 44.0 | 90.5 | 22.5 | 96.3 | 4.1 | 99.9 | 72.0 | 94.3 |
| +2.0 SD | +1.0 SD | 50.6 | 84.3 | 16.8 | 96.5 | 4.9 | 99.8 | 60.6 | 94.4 |
| +2.0 SD | +0.5 SD | 67.1 | 64.6 | 10.6 | 96.9 | 6.9 | 99.4 | 41.9 | 94.4 |
| +1.5 SD | +2.0 SD | 34.1 | 88.1 | 15.2 | 95.5 | 2.9 | 99.7 | 37.7 | 94.3 |
| +1.5 SD | +1.5 SD | 44.0 | 88.2 | 18.9 | 96.2 | 4.1 | 99.7 | 46.1 | 94.3 |
| +1.5 SD | +1.0 SD | 50.6 | 82.1 | 15.1 | 96.4 | 4.9 | 99.4 | 33.9 | 94.3 |
| +1.5 SD | +0.5 SD | 67.1 | 62.8 | 10.2 | 96.8 | 7.0 | 98.6 | 23.9 | 94.4 |
| +1.0 SD | +2.0 SD | 42.4 | 82.0 | 12.9 | 95.8 | 5.7 | 99.3 | 33.8 | 94.4 |
| +1.0 SD | +1.5 SD | 51.0 | 79.6 | 13.6 | 96.3 | 8.2 | 98.9 | 31.9 | 94.5 |
| +1.0 SD | +1.0 SD | 56.7 | 74.1 | 12.1 | 96.5 | 9.9 | 98.1 | 24.6 | 94.6 |
| +1.0 SD | +0.5 SD | 71.2 | 56.7 | 9.3 | 96.9 | 14.0 | 95.4 | 16.0 | 94.7 |
| +0.5 SD | +2.0 SD | 56.1 | 66.5 | 9.5 | 96.0 | 10.5 | 98.5 | 30.5 | 94.6 |
| +0.5 SD | +1.5 SD | 62.6 | 64.6 | 10.0 | 96.5 | 15.1 | 97.6 | 28.3 | 94.8 |
| +0.5 SD | +1.0 SD | 67.0 | 60.2 | 9.5 | 96.7 | 18.1 | 95.7 | 20.9 | 94.9 |
| +0.5 SD | +0.5 SD | 78.1 | 46.1 | 8.3 | 97.1 | 25.6 | 89.7 | 13.5 | 95.1 |