Fig. 3.

Comparison of neutral (A) and selective (B) models to the experimental data. (A and B) Number of species detected over time for a range of bottleneck sizes. Solid lines are experimental data, dashed lines are model data (means of 100 simulations). Note that for ease of visualization, not all bottleneck sizes are displayed. For the remaining bottleneck sizes, see SI Appendix, Data and Comparisons. (C–H) Muller plots showing the relative abundance of all 456 strains over time for two different bottleneck sizes (representative trials picked for simulations). Bottleneck was 3.25 cells per round in C–E and 1,625 cells per round in F–H for neutral (C and F) and selective (E and H) models compared with experiment (D and G). (I) End point (round 25) species area curves for neutral (red dashed line) and selective (blue dashed line) models compared with experiment (solid green line). Note that the neutral model predicts a power law relationship for the smaller bottleneck sizes. Error bars denote 1 SD from 100 simulated trials and are negligible for larger bottleneck neutral simulations.