Table 2.
Overview of Simulation Results for Three Scenarios that Represent the Range of Ambition in This Work in Terms of Renewable Energy Penetration
| 2015 System | EU Reference 2030 |
ENTSO-E Vision 3 2030 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale electricity price (€/MWh) | 44 (±2.2%) | 82 (±2.1%) | 60 (±3.6%) |
| Price received by wind generation (€/MWh) | 48 (2.2%) | 81 (1.3%) | 56 (4.4%) |
| Price received by solar generation (€/MWh) | 45 (2.8%) | 86 (1.7%) | 40 (4.5%) |
| Price received by gas generation (€/MWh) | 69 (2.5%) | 92 (2.0%) | 95 (1.8%) |
| Price received by coal generation (€/MWh) | 50 (2.5%) | 91 (1.2%) | 128 (5.3%) |
| Price received by nuclear generation (€/MWh) | 40 (2.2%) | 75 (1.3%) | 61 (3.2%) |
| Total generation cost (€B) | 47.11 (±0.8%) | 86.83 (±2.1%) | 50.28 (±4.2%) |
| Total CO2 emissions (Mt) | 1001a (±1.0%) | 917 (±1.3%) | 233 (±5.0%) |
| Emissions intensity (gCO2/kWh) | 322.6 (±1.0%) | 247.8 (±1.3%) | 68.5 (±5.0%) |
| RE generation (%) | 36.7 (±1.0) | 47.2 (±1.4) | 68.4 (±1.3) |
| VRE generation (%) | 13.4 (±2.8) | 24.4 (±2.7) | 35.1 (±2.8) |
| VRE curtailment (%) | 0.1 (±26.3) | 0.1 (±16.8) | 4.3 (±10.7) |
| Average interconnection congestion (%) | 26.0 (±0.9) | 19.1 (±2.6) | 29.7 (±1.0) |
| Total international electricity flow (TWh) | 267 (±0.7%) | 355 (±2.3%) | 411 (±1.2%) |
For each metric, the mean and coefficient of variation across all weather years are listed. These scenarios are the 2015 System, the EU Reference, and ENTSO-E vision 3 scenarios (see Supplemental Information for the full range of scenarios). Total generation cost is defined as the sum of total short-run generation costs: fuel, emissions, startup, and shutdown costs. See also Tables S2–S7. RE, renewable energy.
a
Total electricity emissions from this base year simulation are within 3% of the official verified emissions (1,025 Mt) for this year, using our historical 1985–2014 weather data.52