Appendix Table 3.

95% Confidence Intervals for Transition Probabilities

Year	Starting State	Transitioning to	Usual Care	THC+FI
Varying Probability of Becoming Active at Six Months
First Year	Inactive	Active for the Full Year	1% – 9%	10% – 27%
		Active for Half Year	4% – 27%	10% – 28%
		Inactive	94% – 65%	80% – 44%
Subsequent Years	Active for Full Year	Active for the Full Year	6%	24%
		Active for Half Year	19%	25%
		Inactive	75%	51%
Subsequent Years	Inactive or Active for Half Year	Active for the Full Year	0%	0%
		Active for Half Year	0%	0%
		Inactive	100%	100%
Varying Probability of Active Subjects at Six Months Becoming Inactive at Nine Months
First Year	Inactive	Active for the Full Year	17% – 0%	37% – 7%
		Active for Half Year	4% – 20%	1% – 31%
		Inactive	79% – 79%	62% – 62%
Subsequent Years	Active for Full Year	Active for the Full Year	66% – 0%	94% – 3%
		Active for Half Year	15% – 1%	3% – 14%
		Inactive	19% – 99%	3% – 83%
Subsequent Years	Inactive or Active for Half Year	Active for the Full Year	0%	0%
		Active for Half Year	0%	0%
		Inactive	100%	100%

Abbreviations: THC+FI = Telephonic Health Coaching + Financial Incentives