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. 2018 Oct 12;97(41):e12738. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000012738

Figure 3.

Figure 3

(A) The expected number of CM cases, when experienced sunburn is unchanged, when a potential campaign effect is continued until 2040, there is a reversible or irreversible campaign effect. Assumed estimated annual percentage change 2007–2022 (4% increase) and 2022–2040 (0% constant). LAT time of 2 years and LAG time of 5 years. (B) The expected number of SCC cases, when experienced sunburn is unchanged, when a potential campaign effect is continued until 2040, there is a reversible or irreversible campaign effect. Assumed estimated annual percentage change 2007–2022 (4% increase) and 2022–2040 (0% constant). LAT time of 2 years and LAG time of 8 years. (C) The expected number of BCC cases, when experienced sunburn is unchanged, when a potential campaign effect is continued until 2040, there is a reversible or irreversible campaign effect. Assumed estimated annual percentage change 2007–2022 (4% increase) and 2022–2040 (0% constant). LAT time of 2 years and LAG time of 8 years. BCC = basal cell carcinoma, CM = cutaneous melanoma.