Table 2.
Multivariate hazard ratio and 99% confidence interval for developing cancers by waist circumference quintile
| Cancer site | Male | Female | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 | P trend | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 | P trend | |
| Overall | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 52,220 | 72,638 | 76,014 | 94,007 | 90,321 | 49,394 | 69,656 | 67,691 | 93,804 | 104,126 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.09 (1.07–1.11) | 1.14 (1.12–1.15) | 1.19 (1.17–1.20) | 1.26 (1.24–1.28) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.20 (1.18–1.22) | 1.27 (1.25–1.29) | 1.30 (1.28–1.32) | 1.35 (1.33–1.37) | <0.001 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.10 (1.08–1.12) | 1.15 (1.14–1.17) | 1.21 (1.19–1.23) | 1.30 (1.27–1.33) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.15 (1.13–1.17) | 1.19 (1.17–1.21) | 1.17 (1.15–1.19) | 1.14 (1.12–1.17) | <0.001 |
| Oral cavity | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 1245 | 1619 | 1560 | 1829 | 1656 | 371 | 533 | 525 | 784 | 859 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.02 (0.92–1.12) | 0.98 (0.89–1.09) | 0.98 (0.89–1.08) | 0.98 (0.89–1.08) | 0.331 | 1 | 1.11 (0.93–1.33) | 1.12 (0.94–1.34) | 1.16 (0.98–1.38) | 1.12 (0.94–1.34) | 0.129 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.13 (1.02–1.25) | 1.16 (1.04–1.30) | 1.23 (1.10–1.39) | 1.38 (1.20–1.59) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.10 (0.92–1.31) | 1.09 (0.90–1.32) | 1.12 (0.92–1.36) | 1.06 (0.84–1.33) | 0.624 |
| Larynx | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 759 | 913 | 874 | 1094 | 970 | 31 | 49 | 67 | 64 | 105 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 0.98 (0.86–1.11) | 0.93 (0.82–1.06) | 0.98 (0.86–1.11) | 0.93 (0.82–1.06) | 0.247 | 1 | 1.12 (0.62–2.04) | 1.46 (0.83–2.59) | 0.91 (0.51–1.64) | 1.24 (0.71–2.17) | 0.733 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.11 (0.97–1.27) | 1.15 (1.00–1.33) | 1.31 (1.12–1.53) | 1.44 (1.20–1.73) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.15 (0.63–2.11) | 1.52 (0.83–2.78) | 0.96 (0.50–1.85) | 1.35 (0.65–2.79) | 0.665 |
| Oesophagus | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 1522 | 1773 | 1484 | 1713 | 1475 | 92 | 132 | 128 | 190 | 237 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 0.93 (0.85–1.02) | 0.77 (0.70–0.85) | 0.74 (0.67–0.81) | 0.68 (0.61–0.75) | <0.001 | 1 | 0.97 (0.68–1.38) | 0.87 (0.61–1.24) | 0.83 (0.59–1.16) | 0.85 (0.61–1.19) | 0.111 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.17 (1.07–1.29) | 1.12 (1.01–1.25) | 1.25 (1.11–1.40) | 1.47 (1.28–1.69) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.04 (0.73–1.49) | 0.98 (0.67–1.43) | 0.98 (0.66–1.43) | 1.10 (0.71–1.72) | 0.751 |
| Stomach | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 13,544 | 17,782 | 18,213 | 21,898 | 20,122 | 4069 | 6402 | 6685 | 10,584 | 13,294 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.04 (1.01–1.07) | 1.06 (1.03–1.09) | 1.07 (1.04–1.10) | 1.09 (1.05–1.12) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.13 (1.07–1.19) | 1.14 (1.08–1.20) | 1.20 (1.14–1.26) | 1.28 (1.22–1.34) | <0.001 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.05 (1.02–1.08) | 1.07 (1.04–1.11) | 1.10 (1.06–1.14) | 1.12 (1.08–1.17) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.13 (1.07–1.19) | 1.13 (1.07–1.20) | 1.19 (1.12–1.26) | 1.26 (1.18–1.34) | <0.001 |
| Colorectum | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 10,803 | 15,809 | 17,189 | 21,888 | 21,324 | 6283 | 9785 | 10,577 | 15,846 | 19,893 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.13 (1.10–1.17) | 1.21 (1.18–1.25) | 1.29 (1.25–1.33) | 1.37 (1.33–1.41) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.15 (1.10–1.19) | 1.22 (1.17–1.27) | 1.23 (1.18–1.28) | 1.32 (1.27–1.37) | <0.001 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.14 (1.10–1.18) | 1.22 (1.18–1.27) | 1.31 (1.26–1.36) | 1.40 (1.34–1.50) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.12 (1.07–1.17) | 1.17 (1.12–1.22) | 1.15 (1.10–1.21) | 1.19 (1.13–1.26) | <0.001 |
| Liverc | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 5857 | 8458 | 8659 | 10,524 | 10,939 | 1410 | 2378 | 2731 | 4484 | 6233 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.14 (1.10–1.20) | 1.18 (1.13–1.23) | 1.21 (1.16–1.26) | 1.37 (1.31–1.43) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.20 (1.10–1.31) | 1.31 (1.21–1.43) | 1.41 (1.30–1.53) | 1.61 (1.49–1.75) | <0.001 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.15 (1.10–1.20) | 1.18 (1.12–1.24) | 1.21 (1.15–1.28) | 1.38 (1.30–1.47) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.11 (1.02–1.22) | 1.16 (1.06–1.27) | 1.18 (1.08–1.29) | 1.22 (1.10–1.35) | <0.001 |
| Biliary tractd | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 1354 | 1945 | 2218 | 2870 | 2768 | 584 | 1085 | 1392 | 2489 | 3476 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.15 (1.05–1.26) | 1.29 (1.18–1.41) | 1.38 (1.27–1.51) | 1.43 (1.31–1.56) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.20 (1.05–1.37) | 1.37 (1.21–1.56) | 1.51 (1.33–1.70) | 1.65 (1.46–1.86) | <0.001 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.12 (1.02–1.23) | 1.22 (1.11–1.35) | 1.29 (1.16–1.42) | 1.28 (1.14–1.45) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.12 (0.98–1.28) | 1.22 (1.07–1.39) | 1.27 (1.11–1.45) | 1.25 (1.08–1.45) | <0.001 |
| Pancreas | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 3712 | 5150 | 5573 | 6820 | 6381 | 1649 | 2759 | 2958 | 4798 | 6127 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.08 (1.02–1.14) | 1.15 (1.09–1.22) | 1.18 (1.12–1.24) | 1.19 (1.13–1.26) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.17 (1.08–1.27) | 1.19 (1.10–1.29) | 1.25 (1.16–1.35) | 1.30 (1.20–1.40) | <0.001 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.08 (1.02–1.15) | 1.16 (1.09–1.23) | 1.19 (1.11–1.27) | 1.21 (1.12–1.31) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.14 (1.05–1.24) | 1.13 (1.04–1.23) | 1.16 (1.06–1.26) | 1.16 (1.05–1.27) | 0.004 |
| Lung | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 8160 | 9501 | 9453 | 11,471 | 10,413 | 2173 | 3622 | 3894 | 6129 | 7317 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 0.98 (0.94–1.01) | 0.98 (0.94–1.02) | 1.00 (0.96–1.04) | 0.99 (0.95–1.03) | 0.684 | 1 | 1.15 (1.07–1.23) | 1.15 (1.08–1.24) | 1.17 (1.09–1.25) | 1.15 (1.08–1.23) | <0.001 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.09 (1.05–1.13) | 1.17 (1.12–1.22) | 1.29 (1.23–1.35) | 1.44 (1.36–1.52) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.15 (1.07–1.23) | 1.16 (1.07–1.24) | 1.17 (1.09–1.26) | 1.16 (1.06–1.26) | 0.001 |
| Kidney | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 1102 | 1990 | 2344 | 3110 | 3450 | 417 | 698 | 889 | 1339 | 1865 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.36 (1.23–1.50) | 1.58 (1.44–1.73) | 1.75 (1.60–1.92) | 2.10 (1.92–2.30) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.28 (1.09–1.51) | 1.63 (1.39–1.91) | 1.65 (1.42–1.91) | 1.91 (1.64–2.22) | <0.001 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.27 (1.15–1.40) | 1.41 (1.28–1.57) | 1.50 (1.35–1.67) | 1.66 (1.47–1.88) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.19 (1.01–1.40) | 1.42 (1.21–1.68) | 1.36 (1.15–1.60) | 1.40 (1.16–1.69) | <0.001 |
| Bladder | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 2135 | 3017 | 3159 | 4119 | 4208 | 259 | 489 | 572 | 939 | 1354 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.14 (1.06–1.23) | 1.18 (1.10–1.27) | 1.28 (1.20–1.38) | 1.41 (1.31–1.51) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.20 (0.99–1.47) | 1.22 (1.01–1.49) | 1.21 (1.01–1.46) | 1.33 (1.11–1.60) | <0.001 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.14 (1.05–1.23) | 1.17 (1.08–1.27) | 1.26 (1.16–1.37) | 1.38 (1.25–1.52) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.19 (0.97–1.45) | 1.20 (0.98–1.47) | 1.17 (0.96–1.43) | 1.27 (1.01–1.59) | 0.048 |
| Thyroid | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 3499 | 6097 | 6525 | 8096 | 7967 | 19,022 | 25,509 | 23,095 | 29,019 | 27,486 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.45 (1.37–1.53) | 1.71 (1.62–1.80) | 1.94 (1.84–2.05) | 2.27 (2.15–2.39) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.38 (1.35–1.41) | 1.57 (1.53–1.61) | 1.64 (1.59–1.68) | 1.62 (1.58–1.67) | <0.001 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.33 (1.25–1.40) | 1.49 (1.40–1.58) | 1.60 (1.50–1.70) | 1.68 (1.56–1.81) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.27 (1.23–1.30) | 1.36 (1.32–1.39) | 1.33 (1.29–1.37) | 1.16 (1.12–1.21) | <0.001 |
| Brain | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 783 | 1014 | 996 | 1215 | 1173 | 600 | 855 | 930 | 1345 | 1706 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.03 (0.91–1.16) | 1.04 (0.92–1.18) | 1.10 (0.98–1.24) | 1.22 (1.07–1.37) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.13 (0.98–1.29) | 1.27 (1.11–1.46) | 1.29 (1.13–1.47) | 1.45 (1.27–1.66) | <0.001 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.06 (0.93–1.20) | 1.09 (0.95–1.25) | 1.18 (1.02–1.36) | 1.34 (1.12–1.60) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.10 (0.96–1.27) | 1.22 (1.05–1.14) | 1.21 (1.04–1.41) | 1.32 (1.11–1.58) | <0.001 |
| Malignant melanoma | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 153 | 230 | 311 | 356 | 353 | 181 | 207 | 253 | 410 | 509 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.16 (0.89–1.52) | 1.55 (1.20–2.01) | 1.50 (1.17–1.93) | 1.64 (1.27–2.12) | <0.001 | 1 | 0.79 (0.60–1.02) | 0.89 (0.69–1.16) | 0.93 (0.73–1.18) | 0.95 (0.75–1.07) | 0.426 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.15 (0.87–1.51) | 1.52 (1.15–2.01) | 1.45 (1.01–1.95) | 1.56 (1.10–2.21) | <0.001 | 1 | 0.78 (0.59–1.01) | 0.87 (0.67–1.15) | 0.90 (0.69–1.18) | 0.90 (0.66–1.23) | 0.880 |
| Lymphoma | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 1213 | 1648 | 1716 | 2147 | 1995 | 690 | 1178 | 1134 | 1686 | 1918 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.07 (0.97–1.18) | 1.13 (1.03–1.25) | 1.23 (1.12–1.35) | 1.31 (1.19–1.44) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.34 (1.19–1.52) | 1.35 (1.19–1.53) | 1.42 (1.25–1.60) | 1.46 (1.29–1.66) | <0.001 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.05 (0.95–1.16) | 1.10 (0.99–1.23) | 1.18 (1.05–1.32) | 1.23 (1.07–1.41) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.31 (1.16–1.49) | 1.30 (1.13–1.48) | 1.34 (1.17–1.54) | 1.35 (1.15–1.58) | <0.001 |
| Leukaemia | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 755 | 1001 | 996 | 1203 | 1085 | 434 | 620 | 615 | 855 | 1012 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.05 (0.92–1.18) | 1.07 (0.95–1.22) | 1.13 (1.00–1.28) | 1.18 (1.04–1.34) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.17 (0.99–1.38) | 1.23 (1.04–1.45) | 1.22 (1.04–1.44) | 1.31 (1.11–1.54) | <0.001 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.03 (0.90–1.17) | 1.04 (0.91–1.20) | 1.09 (0.94–1.26) | 1.11 (0.93–1.33) | 0.087 | 1 | 1.11 (0.94–1.31) | 1.12 (0.94–1.34) | 1.07 (0.89–1.29) | 1.06 (0.85–1.31) | 0.899 |
| Multiple myeloma | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 405 | 517 | 576 | 707 | 679 | 176 | 304 | 403 | 653 | 796 | ||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.01 (0.85–1.20) | 1.12 (0.95–1.33) | 1.17 (0.99–1.37) | 1.24 (1.05–1.47) | <0.001 | 1 | 1.17 (0.92–1.49) | 1.43 (1.13–1.82) | 1.48 (1.19–1.86) | 1.48 (1.18–1.86) | <0.001 |
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 0.95 (0.80–1.14) | 1.01 (0.84–1.22) | 1.01 (0.83–1.23) | 1.00 (0.79–1.26) | 0.701 | 1 | 1.14 (0.89–1.47) | 1.38 (1.08–1.77) | 1.40 (1.10–1.80) | 1.36 (1.03–1.80) | 0.003 |
| Prostate | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 6531 | 9295 | 10,375 | 13,359 | 12,932 | |||||||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.15 (1.10–1.20) | 1.25 (1.20–1.30) | 1.33 (1.27–1.38) | 1.37 (1.32–1.43) | <0.001 | — | |||||
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.09 (1.05–1.14) | 1.16 (1.10–1.21) | 1.19 (1.14–1.25) | 1.17 (1.11–1.23) | <0.001 | — | |||||
| Testis | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 227 | 293 | 298 | 346 | 341 | |||||||
| HRa (99% CI) | 1 | 1.01 (0.80–1.27) | 1.07 (0.85–1.34) | 1.08 (0.87–1.36) | 1.23 (0.98–1.55) | 0.010 | — | |||||
| HRb (99% CI) | 1 | 1.00 (0.79–1.27) | 1.05 (0.82–1.36) | 1.06 (0.81–1.40) | 1.20 (0.86–1.67) | 0.149 | — | |||||
| Breast-premenopausal | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 8897 | 9958 | 7083 | 6775 | 4479 | |||||||
| HRa (99% CI) | — | 1 | 1.03 (0.99–1.08) | 1.03 (0.99–1.08) | 1.02 (0.98–1.07) | 0.98 (0.93–1.03) | 0.432 | |||||
| HRb (99% CI) | — | 1 | 1.05 (1.01–1.09) | 1.06 (1.02–1.11) | 1.07 (1.02–1.13) | 1.05 (0.98–1.13) | 0.007 | |||||
| Breast-postmenopausal | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 2942 | 5674 | 6778 | 10,365 | 11,884 | |||||||
| HRa (99% CI) | — | 1 | 1.00 (0.94–1.06) | 1.04 (0.99–1.11) | 1.08 (1.02–1.14) | 1.15 (1.09–1.22) | <0.001 | |||||
| HRb (99% CI) | — | 1 | 0.95 (0.89–1.01) | 0.96 (0.90–1.02) | 0.95 (0.89–1.00) | 0.93 (0.87–0.99) | 0.035 | |||||
| Uterus-premenopausal | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 692 | 795 | 580 | 684 | 824 | |||||||
| HRa (99% CI) | — | 1 | 1.11 (0.97–1.27) | 1.15 (0.99–1.33) | 1.39 (1.21–1.61) | 2.31 (2.01–2.66) | <0.001 | |||||
| HRb (99% CI) | — | 1 | 0.95 (0.83–1.09) | 0.87 (0.74–1.02) | 0.93 (0.78–1.09) | 1.13 (0.92–1.39) | 0.546 | |||||
| Uterus-postmenopausal | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 408 | 834 | 1024 | 1612 | 2273 | |||||||
| HRa (99% CI) | — | 1 | 1.05 (0.90–1.23) | 1.13 (0.97–1.32) | 1.19 (1.03–1.38) | 1.55 (1.34–1.78) | <0.001 | |||||
| HRb (99% CI) | — | 1 | 0.96 (0.82–1.12) | 0.95 (0.82–1.12) | 0.93 (0.79–1.08) | 1.02 (0.86–1.21) | 0.695 | |||||
| Ovary-premenopausal | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 1269 | 1261 | 886 | 882 | 799 | |||||||
| HRa (99% CI) | — | 1 | 0.99 (0.89–1.10) | 1.00 (0.90–1.13) | 1.05 (0.93–1.18) | 1.35 (1.19–1.52) | <0.001 | |||||
| HRb (99% CI) | — | 1 | 0.97 (0.87–1.08) | 0.97 (0.85–1.10) | 0.99 (0.86–1.14) | 1.23 (1.03–1.47) | 0.072 | |||||
| Ovary-postmenopausal | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 597 | 1102 | 1447 | 2164 | 2748 | |||||||
| HRa (99% CI) | — | 1 | 0.95 (0.83–1.08) | 1.06 (0.93–1.20) | 1.02 (0.90–1.15) | 1.14 (1.01–1.28) | <0.001 | |||||
| HRb (99% CI) | — | 1 | 0.93 (0.81–1.06) | 1.02 (0.89–1.16) | 0.96 (0.84–1.09) | 1.03 (0.89–1.20) | 0.299 | |||||
| Cervix | ||||||||||||
| No. cancer | 2459 | 2986 | 2693 | 3587 | 4117 | |||||||
| HRa (99% CI) | — | 1 | 1.08 (1.01–1.16) | 1.11 (1.03–1.19) | 1.13 (1.05–1.21) | 1.24 (1.15–1.33) | <0.001 | |||||
| HRb (99% CI) | — | 1 | 1.05 (0.98–1.13) | 1.05 (0.97–1.14) | 1.05 (0.96–1.14) | 1.10 (1.00–1.22) | 0.051 | |||||
HR hazard ratio, CI confidence interval.
aAdjusted for age, smoking status (3 categories), alcohol drinking (3 categories), physical activity (2 categories), co-morbidities (e.g., hypertension, type 2 diabetes, and hyperlipidemia; all are 2 categories, respectively), and socioeconomic status (2 categories).
bAdjusted for body mass index (continuous) additionally.
cIncludes intrahepatic biliary tract cancer.
dIncludes gallbladder cancer and extrahepatic biliary tract cancer