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. 2018 Oct 26;8:15901. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-33165-9

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© The Author(s) 2018

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Comparison observations of in-sample fitting and out-of-sample forecast among selected models. The shaded area represents the incidence cases from March 2018 to December 2018 projected by the best-performing hybrid method, suggesting that a downward trend will continue to be observed in the near future.