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. 2018 Oct 30;67(Suppl 1):S26–S34. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciy605

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© The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Figure 5. — Simulated silent circulation triggered by 1 infectious case shedding Sabin virus in Capoluca 5 years after cessation. A, Predicted magnitude and duration of continued transmission by serotype. Scatterplots show results of each simulation; violin plots, marginal distributions of duration and total cases. B, Sensitivity analysis on within- and between-household transmission rates of Sabin 2. Grid color indicates probability of Sabin virus circulating for >9 months in a community. C, Sensitivity analysis on shedding duration in children <5 years of age and fraction susceptible to infection in persons >5 years of age. Abbreviation: cVDPV, circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus.