TABLE 1.
Transition probabilities and model inputs for the Monte Carlo simulation evaluating the cost‐effectiveness of HCV treatment timing among kidney transplant candidates
| Probability name | Probability | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographics | |||
| Age, mean (SD) | 56 (9) | 35−70 | Shelton 2018)10 |
| Male, % | 73.6 | 60−80 | |
| HCV Metavir stage at baseline, median (IQR) |
2 (1−3) | ||
| Regimen 1 (glecaprevir/pibrentasvir) | |||
| Deatha | 0.00001 | 0.00001−0.01 | Gane (2017)1 |
| Withdrawal | 0.04 | 0.02−0.08 | Gane (2017)1 |
| Toxicity | 0.01 | 0.003−0.03 | Gane (2017)1 |
| SVR | 0.98 | 0.90−1.00 | Gane (2017)1 |
| Regimen 2 grazoprevir/elbasvir) | |||
| Deatha | 0.00001 | 0.00001−0.01 | |
| Withdrawal | 0.05 | 0.02−0.08 | Roth (2015)2 |
| Toxicity | 0.01 | 0.003−0.03 | Roth (2015)2 |
| SVR | 0.99 | 0.90−1.00 | Roth (2015) Kohli 2016)2,38 |
| No treatment | |||
| Delisting | 0.003 | 0.006−0.01 | Hart (2018)4 |
| Death due to cirrhosis, rate per 100 PY |
1.39 | 0.96−1.85 | Bruno (2009)24 |
| Treated | |||
| Transplant | OPO‐specific | SRTR PSR | |
| Delisting | 0.003 | 0.006−0.01 | Hart (2018)4 |
| Death on waitlist, annual | 0.06 | 0.03−0.24 | USRDS 2017)29 |
ESRD, end‐stage renal disease; HCV, hepatitis C; IQR, interquartile range; PSR, program specific report; PY, person‐years; SRTR, Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients; SVR, sustained viral response; USRDS, United States Renal Data System.
a
When disaggregated from background mortality, ESRD‐specific mortality, and HCV‐based mortality, the probability of death was less than zero.