Table 3.

Predictive value of hippocampal measures for cognitive decline in cognitively normal subjects

Reference	Study design				Measurement type	Main outcome
	Cohort	Size	Follow-up	Mean age
Burnham et al., 2016 [85]	AIBL	N = 573	6 years	73	Hippocampal volume	Subjects with low hippocampal volume and evidence of amyloid pathology showed faster cognitive decline compared with subjects with normal biomarkers. Subjects with only decreased hippocampal volume in the absence of amyloid pathology did not show significant decline compared to the normal biomarker group
den Heijer et al., 2010 [83]	Rotterdam study (population-based)	N = 518	8 years	73–79	Hippocampal atrophy rate	Hippocampal atrophy rates predict cognitive decline in healthy subjects (HR 1.6, 1.2–2.3).
den Heijer et al., 2006 [82]	Rotterdam study (population-based)	N = 511	6 years	73–79	Hippocampal volume	Hippocampal volume associated with risk of dementia (HR 3.0, 2.0–4.6).
Martin et al., 2010 [84]	University of Kentucky AD Centre	N = 71	5 years	78–84	Hippocampal and subregions volume; entorhinal cortex volume	Greater atrophy in hippocampus (head and body) and entorhinal cortex in subjects converting to MCI. AUC 0.87 for hippocampal head, 0.84 for hippocampal body, 0.79 for entorhinal cortex.
Stoub et al., 2005 [94]	Rush Alzheimer’s Disease Center (Chicago, USA)	N = 58 (CN and MCI together)	5 years	80	Hippocampal volume and atrophy rates; entorhinal cortex volume and atrophy rates	Baseline entorhinal and slope of decline were predictors for AD. Baseline hippocampal volume and atrophy rates were not (after controlling for entorhinal cortex).

AD Alzheimer’s disease, AIBL Australian Imaging, Biomarker and Lifestyle study, AUC area under the curve, CN cognitively normal, MCI mild cognitive impairment, HR hazard ratio