Table 6.

Synthetic Control Estimates of the Effect of Medicaid on Indicators of Financial Wellbeing for Elderly in Most Treated Zip Codes, Ages 65 and Over

	21 Treatment States		14 Treatment States
	26 Potential Control States		24 Potential Control States
Outcome	Pre-Reform Mean in Treated States (Std. Dev.)	Estimates (p-value)	Pre-Reform Mean in Treated States (Std. Dev.)	Estimates (p-value)
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Credit Score	736	0	735	−0
Credit Score	(12)	(0.694)	(14)	(0.751)
Total Balance	5349	−337^**	5349	−449^*
Total Balance	(459)	(0.037)	(536)	(0.053)
Total Balance Past Due	620	−14	566	19
Total Balance Past Due	(153)	(0.689)	(135)	(0.568)
Total Credit Card Balance	2510	−42	2370	−128^**
Total Credit Card Balance	(330)	(0.313)	(351)	(0.017)
Total Credit Card Balance Past Due	872	−22	740	−3
Total Credit Card Balance Past Due	(288)	(0.601)	(262)	(0.919)
Total Collections Balance in Past 12 Months	91	−19^***	95	−9
Total Collections Balance in Past 12 Months	(27)	(0.000)	(33)	(0.234)
Number of Collections in Past 12 Months	0.145	−0.003	0.172	−0.002
Number of Collections in Past 12 Months	(0.056)	(0.634)	(0.058)	(0.776)
Bankruptcy in Past 24 Months	0.013	−0.001^*	0.012	−0.000
Bankruptcy in Past 24 Months	(0.004)	(0.085)	(0.004)	(0.880)

Table 6 reports the estimates for the post-2014 differences in financial indicators between treated and synthetic control states for elderly adults in the most treated zip codes. The synthetic control weights are determined by matching on all values of the dependent variable in the pre-reform period. Columns (1) – (2) present the results for the broad sample with 21 treatment states and 26 potential control states. Columns (3) – (4) present the results for the narrow sample with 14 treatment states and 24 potential control states. For each expansionary definition, we present the 2010–2013 pre-reform mean outcome for the treated states and average post-reform quarterly difference between the treated states and their synthetic counterpart. In addition to AK, IN, NH, and PA, DC and MA are dropped due to not having enough observations. Bolded results are also significant at the 5% level when the Holm-Bonferroni correction using 8 outcomes is applied to assess absolute gap p-values.

Significance levels:

10%,

^**

5%,

^***

1%.