Table 7.

Synthetic Control Estimates of the Effect of Medicaid on the Distribution of Delinquencies and Credit Score

	21 Treatment States		14 Treatment States
	26 Potential Control States		24 Potential Control States
Outcome	Pre-Reform Mean in Treated States (Std. Dev.)	Estimates (p-value)	Pre-Reform Mean in Treated States (Std. Dev.)	Estimates (p-value)
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
$0 Total Debt Past Due	0.807	−0.000	0.808	−0.005
$0 Total Debt Past Due	(0.023)	(0.903)	(0.025)	(0.140)
$1–$5000 Total Debt Past Due	0.114	−0.001	0.116	−0.002
$1–$5000 Total Debt Past Due	(0.013)	(0.528)	(0.016)	(0.107)
$5001–$10000 Total Debt Past Due	0.034	−0.000	0.032	0.002^*
$5001–$10000 Total Debt Past Due	(0.006)	(0.992)	(0.005)	(0.082)
$10000+ Total Debt Past Due	0.046	−0.000	0.043	0.001
$10000+ Total Debt Past Due	(0.009)	(0.904)	(0.008)	(0.361)

$0 Credit Card Balance Past Due	0.822	0.014^*	0.838	0.010^**
$0 Credit Card Balance Past Due	(0.034)	(0.051)	(0.033)	(0.023)
$1–$1000 Credit Card Balance Past Due	0.033	−0.001	0.034	−0.001
$1–$1000 Credit Card Balance Past Due	(0.007)	(0.269)	(0.009)	(0.360)
$1001–$2000 Credit Card Balance Past Due	0.037	0.000	0.035	−0.002
$1001–$2000 Credit Card Balance Past Due	(0.007)	(0.987)	(0.008)	(0.282)
$2000+ Credit Card Balance Past Due	0.080	−0.008^***	0.066	−0.003
$2000+ Credit Card Balance Past Due	(0.022)	(0.009)	(0.018)	(0.133)

$0 Collections	0.765	0.003	0.723	−0.000
$0 Collections	(0.058)	(0.561)	(0.048)	(0.990)
$1–$1000 Collections	0.160	0.005	0.185	0.006
$1–$1000 Collections	(0.036)	(0.152)	(0.031)	(0.130)
$1001–$2000 Collections	0.039	−0.004^**	0.048	−0.001
$1001–$2000 Collections	(0.012)	(0.021)	(0.011)	(0.420)
$2000+ Collections	0.036	−0.004^*	0.044	−0.007^**
$2000+ Collections	(0.012)	(0.052)	(0.011)	(0.013)

Credit Score <=600	0.310	−0.001	0.328	−0.003
Credit Score <=600	(0.049)	(0.823)	(0.053)	(0.539)
Credit Score 601–660	0.185	−0.007^**	0.177	−0.002
Credit Score 601–660	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.009)	(0.615)
Credit Score 661–780	0.283	0.005	0.262	0.003
Credit Score 661–780	(0.037)	(0.140)	(0.035)	(0.443)
Credit Score 780+	0.221	0.005	0.233	0.002
Credit Score 780+	(0.030)	(0.210)	(0.032)	(0.705)

Table 7 reports the estimates of the post-2014 differences in financial indicators between treated and synthetic control states for non-elderly adults in the most treated zip codes. The synthetic control weights are determined by matching on all values of the dependent variable in the pre-reform period. Columns (1) – (2) present the results for the broad sample with 21 treatment states and 26 potential control states. Columns (3) – (4) present the results for the narrow sample with 14 treatment states and 24 potential control states. For each expansionary definition, we present the 2010–2013 pre-reform mean outcome for the treated states and the average post-reform quarterly difference between the treated states and their synthetic counterpart. In all results, AK, IN, NH, and PA are dropped. Bolded results are also significant at the 5% level when the Holm-Bonferroni correction using 4 outcomes (for each categorical variable group) is applied to assess absolute gap p-values.

Significance levels:

10%,

^**

5%,

^***

1%.