Table 4.

Predicted losses for subgroups of LTC users in prior year

	No risk adjustment	Demographic model	Prior LTC model${}^{\mathrm{a}}$	Prior HCE and DCG model	Full model${}^{\mathrm{a}}$	Incentive compatible model${}^{\mathrm{a}}$	Subgroup size
Demographic information	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Prior LTC use	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes
Prior HCE and diagnosis information	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Activating support	3,763	3,556		3,080			3,559
Domestic care I	5,006	$-$3,232		$-$3,524			46,611
Domestic care II	9,753	2,147		1,479			10,7181
Guidance	21,909	11,406		10,617			9,252
Personal care	16,992	8,293		7,269			82,116
Nursing	25,799	17,183		15,303			24,727
Residential home 1–90 days	22,224	11,978		10,488		8,207	10,054
Residential home 91–180 days	34,768	22,153		20,826			3,903
Residential home 181–365 days	36,137	23,203		22,153			7,655
Residential home 366 days	31,190	14,777		14,139			44,726
Nursing home: somatic care 1–90 days	24,292	16,859		13,829		13,104	1,042
Nursing home: somatic care 91–180 days	38,721	30,839		27,338			389
Nursing home: somatic care 181–365 days	54,610	46,047		42,608			376
Nursing home: somatic care 366 days	65,995	56,700		55,923			1,111
Nursing home: psychogeriatric care 1–90 days	51,386	41,756		40,013		32,614	755
Nursing home: psychogeriatric care 91–180 days	62,188	52,102		51,072			385
Nursing home: psychogeriatric care 180–365 days	68,104	57,465		56,406			517
Nursing home: psychogeriatric care 366 days	70,693	58,546		58,887			2,049
Nursing home: combined care 1–90 days	31,009	23,310		20,888		21,005	10,546
Nursing home: combined care 91–180 days	51,350	42,482		39,803			3,853
Nursing home: combined care 180–365 days	71,408	61,349		59,290			4,359
Nursing home: combined care 366 days	85,868	74,655		74,693			12,439
Receiving home care on last day of 2004	10,078	2,459		1,669		876	17,2291
Stay in LTC institution on last day of 2004	31,213	21,576		20,881		3,155	119,785

All reported predicted losses are significant at the p $<$ 0.05 level

${}^{\mathrm{a}}$ Cells are empty if this variable is included in this risk adjustment model