Table 1:

Key model parameters associated with incarceration and police harassment

	Point estimate (sampled range)		Sampling distribution	Source
	Men	Women
Demographic
Rate of exposure to syringe confiscation in past 6 months at baseline (per year)	0·26 (0·16–0·36)	0·23 (0·13–0·33)	Beta	El Cuete IV13
Rate of exiting prison among people who inject drugs incarcerated in the past 6 months at baseline (per year)	3·1 (0–7)	2·9 (0–7)	Truncated normal	El Cuete IV13
Proportion of people who inject drugs incarcerated before starting injecting	82% (79–92)	33% (19–61)	Fitted values	Fitted to El Cuete data using cohort model (appendix)
Primary incarceration rate (per year)	0·018(0–0·047)	0·034 (0·001–0·055)	Fitted values	Fitted to El Cuete data using cohort model (appendix)
Reincarceration rate (per year)	0·27 (0·80–0·46)	0·20 (0·03–0·40)	Truncated normal	El Cuete IV13
Behavioural
Relative change in proportion reporting recent receptive syringe sharing among recently released from prison vs never or not recently incarcerated	1·30 (1·15–1·46)*	1·30 (1·15–1·46)*	Log-normal	El Cuete IV13
Relative change in proportion reporting recent receptive syringe sharing among recently exposed vs not recently exposed to syringe confiscation by the police	1·16 (1·03–1·29)*	1·16 (1·03–1·29)*	Log-normal	El Cuete IV13
Relative change in proportion reporting recent receptive syringe sharing among people who inject drugs ever vs never exposed to CAP	1·14 (1·00–1·30)*	1·14 (1·00–1·30)*	Log-normal	El Cuete IV13
Relative risk of injecting HIV acquisition among people who inject drugs on OAT compared to no OAT	0·46 (0·32–0·67)	0·46 (0·32–0·67)	Log-normal	MacArthur et al19
Rate of OAT cessation (per year)	1	1	Fixed	Bukten et al,20 Martin et al21

Data are mean (95% CI). Parameters were allowed to vary within the 95% CI shown in brackets. Additional detail on El Cuete IV data is provided in the appendix.

LLK=log-likelihood. CAP=compulsory abstinence programme. OAT=opioid agonist treatment.

^*Adjusted for duration of injection.