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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Nov 1.

Published in final edited form as: Lancet Public Health. 2018 Aug 17;3(9):e429–e437. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30097-5

Table 2:

Data used to calibrate the model

	Point estimate (95%CI)		Distribution used for LLK calculation	Source
	Men	Women
HIV prevalence among people who inject drugs in 2005	2·3% (1–5·3)	2·3% (1–5·3)	Beta	Frost et al²²
HIV prevalence among people who inject drugs in 2006	2·4% (1·3–3.6)	5·4% (1·5–7·8)	Beta	Strathdee et al²³
HIV prevalence among ever incarcerated people who inject drugs in 2011	3·5% (1·7–5·4)	5·2% (1·7–8·8)	Beta	El Cuete IV¹³
Relative HIV prevalence among ever versus never incarcerated people who inject drugs in 2011	1·1 (0·3–4·7)	3·2 (0·7–15)	Normal	El Cuete IV¹³
HIV incidence among people who inject drugs in 2015 (per 100 person-years)	0·5 (0·06–0·9)	1·1 (0·3–1·8)	Poisson	El Cuete IV¹³
Proportion of new infections attributable to sexual transmission in 2006	0·45 (0·30–0·60)	0·45 (0·30–0·60)	Normal	HIV/syphilis model (appendix)

Data are mean (95% CI). Parameters were allowed to vary within the 95% CI shown in brackets. Additional detail on El Cuete IV data is provided in the appendix. LLK=log-likelihood.

^*

Adjusted for duration of injection.