Table 5.
Trend model for Swiss GDP and the effects of big crises, 1892–2016
| Regressor | Coefficient estimates, unrestricted | Coefficient estimates, restricted |
|---|---|---|
| T | 0.0339 (0.00285)*** | 0.0344 (0.00238)*** |
| D1911 | − 0.0810 (0.0387)** | − 0.196 (0.0431)*** |
| D1931 | − 0.250 (0.0714)*** | − 0.285 (0.0595)*** |
| D1991 | − 0.298 (0.0811)*** | − 0.285 (0.0595)*** |
| D2007 | − 0.193 (0.0649)*** | − 0.196 (0.0431)*** |
| D1916 | − 0.252 (0.0769)*** | − 0.109 (0.0434)* |
| D1942 | − 0.0621 (0.0723) | − 0.109 (0.0434)* |
| D1974 | − 0.107 (0.0806) | − 0.109 (0.0434)* |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.990 | 0.989 |
| Standard error of residual | 0.0876 | 0.0912 |
| Durbin-Watson statistics | 0.699 | 0.561 |
| Number of observations | 125 | 125 |
| F-test: δ1 = δ2 = δ3 = δ4 = δ5 = δ6 = δ7 | 4.379*** | |
| F-test: δ1 = δ2 = δ3 = δ4 | 7.734*** | |
| F-test: δ5 = δ6 = δ7 | 3.241* | |
| F-test: δ1 = δ4, δ2 = δ3, δ5 = δ6 = δ7 | 2.076* | |
| δ2 − δ5 | 0.176 (0.0665)*** |
Note: *,**,***Significance at the 5%, 1%, and 0.1% level, respectively
Standard errors corrected for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation (Newey-West) are given in parentheses percent). Data sources: 1892–2005: Swiss economic and social history online database, Table Q16a, b, http://www.fsw.uzh.ch/hstat/nls_rev/ls_files.php?chapter_var=./q; 2006–2016: https://data.snb.ch/de/topics/uvo#!/cube