Table 2:
10-year cumulative breast cancer outcomes in the East African region, by early detection strategy
| No early detection (78% advanced) |
Clinical access only (60% advanced) |
Elevated awareness with clinical screening (35% advanced) |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy E0 | Policy E1 | Policy E2 | Policy E3 | Policy E4 | Policy E5 | Policy E6 | Policy E7 | Policy E8 | Policy E9 | |
| Treatment programme |
A | B | C | D | B | C | D | B | C | D |
| Incidence | 616 (563–663) | 616 (563–663) | 616 (563–663) | 616 (563–663) | 616 (563–663) | 616 (563–663) | 616 (563–663) | 616 (563–663) | 616 (563–663) | 616 (563–663) |
| Mortality | 277 (244–303) | 254 (227–281) | 231 (203–265) | 217 (190–247) | 226 (196–253) | 206 (178–242) | 195 (167–224) | 190 (167–213) | 171 (146–198) | 164 (139–186) |
| Proportion of incident survival (%) |
55∙0% (51∙6–59∙6) |
58∙8% (55∙2–62∙3) |
62∙6% (58–8–66–3) |
64–8% (60–6–68–2) |
63–3% (59–8–66–8) |
66–6% (63–1–70–5) |
68–4% (64–1–71–1) |
69–2% (66–1–72–1) |
72–2% (68–6–75–5) |
73–5% (69–5–76–6) |
| MRR | 1 | 0∙92 (0∙83–1∙05) |
0∙83 (0–74–0–93) |
0–78 (0–69–0–89) |
0–82 (0–72–0–92) |
0–74 (0–66–0–84) |
0–70 (0–61–0–80) |
0–69 (0–61–0–79) |
0–62 (0–54–0–71) |
0–59 (0–51–0–68) |
| ARR | 0 | 23 (−12 to 49) |
46 (16 to 74) |
60 (30 to 90) |
51 (19 to 80) |
71 (42 to 98) |
82 (53 to 12) |
87 (53 to 115) |
106 (74 to 132) |
113 (80 to 138) |
| YLS | 0 | 92 (−12 to 200) |
179 (64 to 298) |
227 (85 to 335) |
191 (70 to 312) |
268 (177 to 380) |
305 (165 to 421) |
324 (209 to 438) |
395 (280 to 523) |
418 (282 to 552) |
Data are mean (95% uncertainty intervals) from 100 simulations of 100 000 women aged 30–49 years. MRR, ARR, and YLS are relative to policy E0. A=surgery only. B=A plus endocrine therapy for all ER-positive cases. C=B plus chemotherapy for all ER-negative cases. D=C plus chemotherapy for advanced ER-positive cases. ER=oestrogen-receptor. MRR=mortality rate ratio. ARR=absolute risk reduction (ie, number of lives =years of lite saved).