TABLE III.
RMSE AND MAE OF WIND SPEED FORECASTS. MISSED THE DATA FOR h = 4 AND PERIOD 2 IN THE ORIGINAL DATASET. BOLD-FACED VALUES INDICATE THE BEST PERFORMANCE. THE PERCENTAGE IMPROVEMENTS ARE THE ERROR INFLATION RATE RELATIVE TO HYB.
| RMSE | MAE | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | Forecast | h = 1 | h = 2 | h = 3 | h = 4 | Average | % Imp. | h =1 | h = 2 | h = 3 | h = 4 | Average | % Imp. |
| 1 | ASYM | 0.95 | 1.37 | 2.70 | 2.86 | 2.14 | 1% | 0.80 | 1.18 | 2.48 | 2.64 | 1.77 | 1% |
| SEP1 | 1.23 | 1.63 | 2.92 | 3.03 | 2.34 | 9% | 1.06 | 1.45 | 2.72 | 2.81 | 2.01 | 12% | |
| SEP2 | 1.01 | 1.50 | 2.85 | 2.99 | 2.26 | 6% | 0.86 | 1.31 | 2.63 | 2.77 | 1.89 | 7% | |
| PER | 1.29 | 1.72 | 2.98 | 3.16 | 2.42 | 12% | 1.05 | 1.49 | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.06 | 15% | |
| ARMA(1,1) | 1.63 | 2.06 | 3.48 | 3.62 | 2.83 | 25% | 1.31 | 1.83 | 3.29 | 3.35 | 2.47 | 29% | |
| SVM | 1.61 | 1.91 | 3.33 | 3.44 | 2.70 | 21% | 1.40 | 1.69 | 3.14 | 3.18 | 2.35 | 25% | |
| HYB | 0.95 | 1.36 | 2.69 | 2.85 | 2.13 | 0.79 | 1.17 | 2.46 | 2.62 | 1.76 | |||
| 2 | ASYM | 1.42 | 2.53 | 2.31 | − | 2.14 | 4% | 1.04 | 2.28 | 2.09 | − | 1.80 | 5% |
| SEP1 | 2.77 | 3.25 | 2.65 | − | 2.90 | 29% | 2.19 | 2.80 | 2.30 | − | 2.43 | 30% | |
| SEP2 | 1.64 | 2.62 | 2.30 | − | 2.22 | 7% | 1.29 | 2.36 | 2.06 | − | 1.90 | 10% | |
| PER | 1.83 | 2.88 | 2.57 | − | 2.47 | 17% | 1.49 | 2.55 | 2.27 | − | 2.10 | 19% | |
| ARMA(1,1) | 1.99 | 3.05 | 2.78 | − | 2.64 | 22% | 1.62 | 2.81 | 2.52 | − | 2.31 | 26% | |
| SVM | 2.42 | 3.68 | 3.41 | − | 3.21 | 36% | 2.19 | 3.41 | 3.10 | − | 2.87 | 39% | |
| HYB | 1.25 | 2.45 | 2.27 | − | 2.06 | 0.89 | 2.19 | 2.04 | − | 1.71 | |||
| 3 | ASYM | 0.87 | 0.94 | 1.02 | 1.35 | 1.06 | 2% | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.85 | 1.17 | 0.88 | 2% |
| SEP1 | 1.21 | 1.25 | 1.21 | 1.52 | 1.31 | 20% | 0.99 | 1.04 | 1.01 | 1.30 | 1.08 | 21% | |
| SEP2 | 0.88 | 1.09 | 1.14 | 1.50 | 1.17 | 11% | 0.73 | 0.92 | 0.97 | 1.31 | 0.98 | 13% | |
| PER | 1.01 | 1.07 | 1.36 | 1.51 | 1.25 | 17% | 0.81 | 0.84 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 0.98 | 13% | |
| ARMA(1,1) | 1.11 | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.65 | 1.36 | 24% | 0.93 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.43 | 1.16 | 26% | |
| SVM | 1.03 | 1.16 | 1.34 | 1.68 | 1.33 | 21% | 0.84 | 0.94 | 1.07 | 1.40 | 1.06 | 19% | |
| HYB | 0.89 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.31 | 1.04 | 0.72 | 0.74 | 0.83 | 1.13 | 0.85 | |||
| 4 | ASYM | 1.27 | 1.45 | 1.87 | 3.94 | 2.37 | 7% | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.48 | 3.73 | 1.85 | 6% |
| SEP1 | 3.38 | 2.45 | 2.66 | 4.19 | 3.24 | 32% | 2.68 | 1.99 | 2.13 | 3.75 | 2.64 | 34% | |
| SEP2 | 1.41 | 1.59 | 1.99 | 3.80 | 2.40 | 8% | 1.13 | 1.33 | 1.61 | 3.60 | 1.91 | 9% | |
| PER | 1.88 | 2.10 | 2.53 | 5.28 | 3.25 | 32% | 1.49 | 1.71 | 2.06 | 4.78 | 2.51 | 31% | |
| ARMA(1,1) | 2.07 | 1.77 | 2.14 | 3.81 | 2.58 | 14% | 1.67 | 1.44 | 1.76 | 3.51 | 2.09 | 17% | |
| SVM | 1.71 | 1.74 | 2.15 | 3.89 | 2.54 | 13% | 1.43 | 1.44 | 1.71 | 3.60 | 2.05 | 15% | |
| HYB | 1.26 | 1.43 | 1.92 | 3.50 | 2.21 | 0.99 | 1.18 | 1.54 | 3.26 | 1.74 | |||