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. 2018 Nov 6;8:16435. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-34664-5

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© The Author(s) 2018

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Yearly cumulative outbreak probability for Dengue (DENV) and Chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses in Rome in the case of HBR = 1. Differences in outbreak probability are shown considering 2012–2015 incident cases worldwide as baseline and comparing them with increasing epidemics (x2, x10) in selected countries. Dots represent the mean difference between baseline and scenario; solid horizontal lines represent the 95% credible interval of the difference distributions. The dashed vertical line indicates no difference.