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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2019 Oct 1.
Published in final edited form as: Demography. 2018 Oct;55(5):1855–1885. doi: 10.1007/s13524-018-0707-2

Table 6.

Estimated number of excess deaths from smoking that would have been averted in 2010, net of confounders, by sex, U.S. adults ages 35+ years

Female Male Total

If Current Smoker Rates Were Replaced by Never Smoker Rates
 Established causes
  35−44 1,902 3,896 5,798
  45−54 9,495 19,450 28,945
  55−64 22,738 44,609 67,347
  65−74 27,905 49,489 77,394
  75−84 22,979 24,713 47,692
  85+ 4,796 4,169 8,965
  Total 89,815 146,326 236,141
 Additional causes
  35−44 1,206 1,538 2,744
  45−54 2,580 5,664 8,244
  55−64 4,808 11,140 15,948
  65−74 4,720 7,509 12,229
  75−84 3,328 3,764 7,092
  85+ 893 497 1,390
  Total 17,535 30,112 47,647
If Former Smoker Rates Were Replaced by Never Smoker Rates
 Established causes
  35−44 333 289 622
  45−54 1,473 3,385 4,858
  55−64 7,255 13,015 20,270
  65−74 18,080 37,390 55,470
  75−84 20,497 47,616 68,113
  85+ 10,069 21,981 32,050
  Total 57,707 123,676 181,383
 Additional causes
  35−44 289 268 557
  45−54 279 718 997
  55−64 987 1,574 2,561
  65−74 1,568 1,224 2,792
  75−84 2,899 5,301 8,200
  85+ 1,779 –170 1,609
  Total 7,801 8,915 16,716
Total 172,858 309,029 481,887

Note: Estimated number of excess deaths are based on 2010 U.S. population size and age composition, drawn from 2010 U.S. Census Summary File 1 (Howden and Meyer 2011). Models adjust for age, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, marital status, region, BMI, and health insurance status. Diseases established as caused by smoking are those recognized by the surgeon general (U.S. DHHS 2014). Additional diseases associated with smoking are those compiled by Carter et al. (2015).

Source: 1990–2011 NHIS-LMF