Table 3.
Population attributable fraction (PAF) for diagnosis-specific sickness absence adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and chronic disease
| Prevalence | Musculoskeletal diseases | Depressive disorders | External causes | Circulatory diseases | Respiratory diseases | Digestive diseases | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smoking | |||||||
| Current data | 17·6% | 5·8 (4·1 to 7·6) | 11·0 (6·9 to 15·4) | 5·8 (3·4 to 8·5) | 9·6 (5·0 to 14·7) | 4·5 (2·7 to 6·6) | 1·6 (−1·4 to 5·0) |
| Prevalence from external source | 19·2% | 6·3 (4·4 to 8·3) | 11·8 (7·5 to 16·5) | 6·3 (3·7 to 9·2) | 10·3 (5·4 to 15·8) | 4·9 (3·0 to 7·1) | 1·7 (−1·6 to 5·4) |
| High alcohol consumption* | |||||||
| Current data | 20·8% | 0·8 (−1·0 to 2·7) | 5·1 (1·4 to 9·0) | 4·2 (1·5 to 6·8) | −2·7 (−6·8 to 1·5) | 1·9 (0·0 to 3·5) | 1·6 (−1·7 to 4·9) |
| Prevalence from external source | 30·5% | 1·2 (−1·5 to 3·9) | 7·2 (2·0 to 12·5) | 6·0 (2·1 to 9·6) | −4·1 (−10·3 to 2·2) | 2·8 (0·0 to 5·0) | 2·3 (−2·5 to 7·0) |
| Heavy episodic drinking* | |||||||
| Current data | 8·0% | 0·1 (−1·0 to 1·3) | 6·7 (3·2 to 11·1) | 4·9 (2·6 to 7·6) | 1·7 (−1·1 to 5·4) | 2·6 (0·1 to 5·7) | −1·5 (−3·4 to 1·3) |
| Prevalence from external source | 19·9% | 0·2 (−2·4 to 3·1) | 15·2 (7·5 to 23·7) | 11·3 (6·2 to 17·0) | 4·0 (−2·9 to 12·4) | 6·2 (0·2 to 13·1) | −3·7 (−8·9 to 3·1) |
| Overweight† | |||||||
| Current data | 35·0% | 8·9 (6·5 to 11·4) | 2·0 (−2·8 to 6·9) | 6·2 (2·6 to 9·6) | 4·8 (−1·0 to 10·5) | 0·3 (−2·1 to 3·2) | −1·0 (−5·7 to 3·6) |
| Prevalence from external source | 35·7% | 8·9 (6·6 to 11·3) | 2·0 (−2·9 to 6·9) | 6·2 (2·7 to 9·6) | 4·8 (−1·0 to 10·3) | 0·3 (−2·1 to 3·2) | −1·0 (−5·7 to 3·5) |
| Obesity† | |||||||
| Current data | 11·9% | 6·0 (4·6 to 7·5) | 4·3 (1·3 to 7·3) | 5·1 (3·0 to 7·2) | 8·5 (4·6 to 12·5) | 4·8 (3·0 to 6·5) | 7·5 (4·1 to 10·9) |
| Prevalence from external source | 15·9% | 7·8 (6·0 to 9·7) | 5·6 (1·8 to 9·4) | 6·6 (4·0 to 9·3) | 11·0 (6·0 to 16·0) | 6·2 (3·9 to 8·4) | 9·7 (5·4 to 14·0) |
| Low physical activity | |||||||
| Current data | 22·4% | 4·9 (3·0 to 7·1) | 13·1 (8·6 to 17·7) | −1·4 (−3·7 to 1·1) | 5·3 (0·4 to 10·4) | 7·7 (5·3 to 9·9) | 5·3 (1·8 to 9·3) |
| Prevalence from external source | 36·8% | 7·8 (4·9 to 11·1) | 19·8 (13·4 to 26·1) | −2·3 (−6·3 to 1·8) | 8·4 (0·7 to 16·1) | 12·0 (8·4 to 15·3) | 8·4 (2·9 to 14·5) |
Data are PAF (95% CI) for sickness absence by diagnosis. Prevalence of risk factors from an external source was obtained for the general population from EUROSTAT 2014 (28 EU countries) for overweight (body-mass index 25–29·9 kg/m2), obesity (≥30 kg/m2), smoking (daily), and heavy episodic drinking (at least once every month); Lancet Global Health 2018 study of high-income countries for physical inactivity (not doing at least 150 min of moderate intensity or 75 min of vigorous intensity physical activity per week, or any equivalent combination of the two); Lancet 2018 study of 22 centres in ten European countries for high alcohol consumption (>100 g absolute alcohol per week; references in the appendix).
PAF for the reduction in sickness absence if people who reduced their high alcohol consumption consumed moderate levels of alcohol (rather than becoming abstainers); abstainers (prevalence 13·8% in current data and 15·2% in external sources) were taken into account in PAF analyses, but were not included in the reference group consisting of participants with moderate alcohol consumption.
Participants who were underweight (<18·5 kg/m2) were excluded from this analysis.