Table 3.

Early Risk Markers Among All Male, Convicted, Swedish-Born, Child Sexual Exploitation Material (CSEM) Offenders Compared to Matched Controls in a Nationwide Case-Control Study (Presented by Offender Subtype)

	CSEM-Exclusive Offenders						Mixed CSEM Offenders

			Adjusted (Multivariate) Logistic Regression^b						Adjusted (Multivariate) Logistic Regression^b

	Unadjusted (Bivariate) Logistic Regression		Parental/Pregnancy-Related Models Separately		Parental/Pregnancy-Related Models Combined		Unadjusted (Bivariate) Logistic Regression		Parental/Pregnancy-Related Models Separately		Parental/Pregnancy-Related Models Combined

Variables	OR	[95% CI]	AOR	[95% CI]	AOR	[95% CI]	OR	[95% CI]	AOR	[95% CI]	AOR	[95% CI]
Parental
Age of mother at delivery < 25 yrs^a	1.36	[1.10, 1.70]	1.08	[0.82, 1.41]	—	—	1.69	[1.26, 2.28]	1.26	[0.89, 1.80]	—	—
Age of father at delivery < 25 yrs^a	1.62	[1.24, 2.10]	1.38	[1.002, 1.91]	1.33	[1.01, 1.76]	1.68	[1.18, 2.40]	1.28	[0.85, 1.95]	—	—
Highest parental education	0.81	[0.68, 0.98]	0.81	[0.66, 0.99]	0.78	[0.64, 0.95]	0.75	[0.58, 0.97]	0.72	[0.54, 0.96]	0.72	[0.55, 0.96]
Any parental violent conviction	2.00	[1.48, 2.68]	2.26	[1.59, 3.20]	2.35	[1.68, 3.30]	3.59	[2.42, 5.34]	3.76	[2.39, 5.90]	4.63	[2.99, 7.17]
Any parental psychiatric disorder	2.13	[1.16, 3.91]	1.12	[0.52, 2.42]	—	—	0.71	[0.21, 2.39]	—	—	—	—
Any parental substance use disorder	2.65	[1.34, 5.21]	1.40	[0.59, 3.30]	—	—	1.34	[0.44, 4.10]	—	—	—	—
Any parental suicide attempt	2.27	[1.14, 4.53]	1.36	[0.58, 3.20]	—	—	3.07	[1.004, 9.39]	1.52	[0.44, 5.29]	—	—
Pregnancy-Related
No. of older full brothers	0.75	[0.62, 0.91]	0.75	[0.62, 0.91]	0.78	[0.63, 0.95]	0.65	[0.49, 0.86]	0.64	[0.48, 0.86]	0.65	[0.49, 0.87]
Low Apgar (< 7 at 5 min)	0.70	[0.21, 2.36]	—	—	—	—	0.88	[0.26, 3.01]	—	—	—	—
Birth weight < 2,500 g	1.05	[0.58, 1.90]	—	—	—	—	0.68	[0.31, 1.53]	—	—	—	—
SGA	1.40	[0.80, 2.44]	—	—	—	—	1.36	[0.71, 2.61]	—	—	—	—
Any congenital malformation	1.31	[0.84, 2.02]	—	—	—	—	2.09	[1.25, 3.49]	1.90	[1.12, 3.24]	2.11	[1.23, 3.63]
Head circumference ≤ 33 cm	0.99	[0.75, 1.30]	—	—	—	—	1.35	[0.96, 1.88]	—	—	—	—

Notes. Male population control subjects were matched 1:5 on birth year and county of birth in Sweden. “Mixed” denotes CSEM offenders who were also convicted of any contact child sexual offense. “CSEM-Exclusive” denotes CSEM without a contact sex offense. Highest parental education (across both biological parents): 0 = primary school, 1 = secondary school, 2 = postsecondary qualification. SGA = small for gestational age, defined as two standard deviations or more below the mean birth weight for gestational age. Unadjusted odds ratios (ORs) were generated with bivariate logistic regression, not controlling for any other variables. Sample size was reduced in the final model due to listwise deletion (i.e., participants were excluded from analysis if any single value was missing). Each adjusted OR (AOR) represents the change in the odds of committing a CSEM offense for each one unit increase of each risk marker, after controlling for/maintaining all other variables in the model constant. Bolded figures are statistically significant at p < .05. Model fit: CSEM-exclusive offenders: Model 1 (adjusted model, controlling only for parental risk factors): pseudo R² = .033, log likelihood = −690.36, N = 2,371 (n cases = 404). Model 2 (gray shaded, adjusted model, controlling only for pregnancy-related risk factors): pseudo R² = .0003, log likelihood = −654.44, N = 2,261 (n cases = 422). Model 3 (controlling for both parental and pregnancy-related variables): pseudo R² = .036, log likelihood = −688.39, N = 2,371 (n cases = 404). CSEM Mixed offenders: Model 4 (adjusted model, controlling only for parental risk factors): pseudo R² = .073, log likelihood = −357.87, N = 1,284 (n cases = 218). Model 5 (gray shaded, adjusted model, controlling only for pregnancy-related risk factors): pseudo R² = .019, log likelihood = −395.88, N = 1,353 (n cases = 225). Model 6 (controlling for both parental and pregnancy-related variables): pseudo R² = .084, log likelihood = −369.08, N = 1,351 (n cases = 225).

Reference category is 25 to 44.9 years of age.

Only risk markers with statistically significant odds ratios (p < .05) in bivariate analyses were included in adjusted (multivariate) conditional models.