Table 2.
Morbidity and mortality outcomes for tuberculosis household contact management interventions in children younger than 15 years
| Scenario A: no household contact management | Scenario B: preventive therapy to children younger than 5 years and children who are HIV positive | Scenario C: preventive therapy to children younger than 5 years and children who are HIV positive or TST positive | Difference between B and A | Difference between C and A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All children younger than 15 years | |||||
| Tuberculosis cases | 996 500 (930 300 to 1 049 000) | 929 800 (863 900 to 983 300) | 837 000 (771 700 to 892 400) | −66 700 (−72 370 to −59 790) | −159 500 (−170 900 to −147 000) |
| Tuberculosis deaths | 133 500 (123 400 to 142 400) | 29 840 (27 300 to 31 750) | 25 130 (22 850 to 26 880) | −103 600 (−111 900 to −94 480) | −108 400 (−116 700 to −98 800) |
| Total life expectancy (years) | 526 200 000 (519 400 000 to 532 200 000) | 533 200 000 (526 400 000 to 539 300 000) | 533 500 000 (526 700 000 to 539 600 000) | 7 006 000 (6 373 000 to 7 567 000) | 7 305 000 (6 663 000 to 7 874 000) |
| Children younger than 5 years | |||||
| Tuberculosis cases | 382 800 (358 100 to 404 300) | 318 000 (294 500 to 338 800) | .. | −64 800 (−70 490 to −57 820) | .. |
| Tuberculosis deaths | 101 000 (92 500 to 108 200) | 17 550 (15 520 to 19 000) | .. | −83 460 (−90 150 to −75 800) | .. |
| Total life expectancy (years) | 182 900 000 (179 800 000 to 185 900 000) | 188 600 000 (185 400 000 to 191 700 000) | .. | 5 724 000 (5 181 000 to 6 188 000) | .. |
| Children aged 5–14 years | |||||
| Tuberculosis cases | 613 700 (553 000 to 666 900) | 611 800 (551 100 to 664 900) | 519 000 (459 300 to 569 700) | −1906 (−2037 to −1765) | −94 710 (−103 700 to −84 700) |
| Tuberculosis deaths | 32 480 (27 460 to 36 430) | 12 290 (10 810 to 13 440) | 7584 (6611 to 8334) | −20 180 (−23 180 to −16 090) | −24 900 (−28 450 to −20 320) |
| Total life expectancy (years) | 343 400 000 (337 000 000 to 348 800 000) | 344 700 000 (338 300 000 to 350 300 000) | 344 900 000 (338 600 000 to 350 600 000) | 1 282 000 (1 016 000 to 1 479 000) | 1 581 000 (1 281 000 to 1 816 000) |
Data are number (75% uncertainty interval). Tuberculosis cases, deaths, and life expectancy all include contributions from incident and co-prevalent cases of tuberculosis. .. indicates cells for which the number is the same for scenarios B and C because no additional children were eligible for preventive therapy in scenario C than scenario B. TST=tuberculin skin test.