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. 2018 Nov 10;392(10159):2052–2090. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31694-5

Figure 2.

Figure 2

The three model components for China and Australia by age and sex: (A) China, male, all causes; (B) China, female, all causes; (C) Australia, male, all causes; (D) Australia, female, all causes.

Figure shows the annualised rates of change (ARCs; errors bars represent 95% UI) for deaths from 1990 to 2016 broken down into the ARC for the underlying death rate and total death rate, and the ARC for the reference scenario for 2016 to 2040 by underlying rate, the underlying rate plus risk attributable mortality, and the underlying rate plus risk attributable mortality plus the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) component (reference scenario). The ARC is measured in terms of all-cause mortality by location, and rates of change are shown by age group on the x-axis. Rates of change are calculated from 2016 to 2040 in the forecasts and from 1990 to 2016 on past GBD estimates. GBD=Global Burden of Disease Study. EN=early neonatal. LN=late neonatal. PN=post-neonatal. Std=age standardised.