Figure 2.

Out-of-sample model performance for CODEm models and age-standardised cause-specific mortality rate by Level 1 causes

Model performance was defined by the root-mean squared error of the ensemble model predictions of the log of the age-specific death rates for a cause with 15% of the data held out from the statistical model building. The figure shows the association between the root-mean squared error and the log of the CSMR, aggregated over 1980–2017. Each point represents one CODEm model specific for model-specific age ranges and sex. Circles denote models run with all locations. Triangles denote models run on only data-rich locations. Colours denote the Level 1 cause categories. Open circles and triangles denote models that were run with restricted age groups of less than 30 years. CODEm=Cause of Death Ensemble model. CSMR=cause-specific mortality rate.