Table 2.
Predicting global attainment of health-related SDG indicators on the basis of past pace of progress observed across countries
| 2030 target used in this analysis | Projected attainment in 2030 | Global average in 2015 | Global required annualised rates of change to meet SDG target by 2030 | Global percentile based on country-level annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2015 | Country-level annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2015 based on the mean percentiles for defined targets (90th percentile) | Global average in 2030 | Global percentage change, 2015–30 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator 1.5.1: Death rate due to exposure to forces of nature | Undefined | .. | 0·2 per 100 000 population | .. | .. | −9·3% | 0·05 per 100 000 population | −76·8% |
| Indicator 2.2.1: Prevalence of stunting in children younger than 5 years | ≤0·5% | 0% | 28·7% | −27·0% | 100 | −3·1% | 18·0% | −37·6% |
| Indicator 2.2.2a: Prevalence of wasting in children younger than 5 years | ≤0·5% | 1% | 8·0% | −18·5% | 100 | −3·2% | 5·0% | −38·3% |
| Indicator 2.2.2b: Prevalence of overweight in children aged 2–4 years | ≤0·5% | 0% | 15·9% | −23·1% | 100 | −0·5% | 15·8% | −0·5% |
| Indicator 3.1.1: Maternal mortality ratio in females aged 10–54 years | <70 deaths per 100 000 livebirths | 56% | 145·0 per 100 000 livebirths | −4·9% | 86 | −6·0% | 57·0 per 100 000 livebirths | −60·7% |
| Indicator 3.1.2: Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel | ≥99% | 54% | 80·1% | 1·4% | 76 | 3·0% | >99% | >22·8% |
| Indicator 3.2.1: Under-5 mortality rate | ≤25 deaths per 1000 livebirths | 72% | 43·3 per 1000 livebirths | −3·7% | 56 | −5·2% | 19·4 per 1000 livebirths | −55·3% |
| Indicator 3.2.2: Neonatal mortality rate | ≤12 deaths per 1000 livebirths | 71% | 18·6 per 1000 livebirths | −2·9% | 58 | −5·0% | 8·6 per 1000 livebirths | −53·7% |
| Indicator 3.3.1: Age-standardised rate of new HIV infections | ≤0·005 per 1000 population | 4% | 0·3 per 1000 population | −26·9% | 100 | −5·0% | 0·1 per 1000 population | −53·4% |
| Indicator 3.3.2: Age-standardised rate of tuberculosis cases | ≤0·5 per 100 000 population | 0% | 139·6 per 100 000 population | −37·6% | 100 | −2·9% | 89·9 per 100 000 population | −35·6% |
| Indicator 3.3.3: Age-standardised rate of malaria cases | ≤0·005 per 1000 population | 61% | 31·8 per 1000 population | −58·4% | 97 | −17·1% | 1·9 per 1000 population | −94·0% |
| Indicator 3.3.4: Age-standardised rate of hepatitis B incidence | Undefined | .. | 2123·8 per 100 000 population | .. | .. | −0·6% | 1955·2 per 100 000 population | −7·9% |
| Indicator 3.3.5: Age-standardised prevalence of the sum of 15 neglected tropical diseases | ≤0·5% | 24% | 18·2% | −24·0% | 100 | −4·3% | 9·4% | −48·2% |
| Indicator 3.4.1: Age-standardised death rate due to cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease in populations aged 30–70 years | Reduce by one-third from 2015 to 2030 | 0% | 382·7 per 100 000 population | −2·7% | 91 | −2·6% | 258·2 per 100 000 population | −32·5% |
| Indicator 3.4.2: Age-standardised death rate due to self-harm | Reduce by one-third from 2015 to 2030 | 0% | 10·0 per 100 000 population | −2·7% | 93 | −2·5% | 6·8 per 100 000 population | −31·4% |
| Indicator 3.5.2: Risk-weighted prevalence of alcohol consumption, as measured by the summary exposure value or alcohol use | Undefined | .. | 11·6% | .. | .. | −1·4% | 9·4% | −18·7% |
| Indicator 3.6.1: Age-standardised death rate due to road injuries | Reduce by 50% from 2015 to 2020 | 0% | 16·1 per 100 000 population | −13·9% | 100 | −4·3% | 13·0 per 100 000 population | −19·6% |
| Indicator 3.7.1: Proportion of females of reproductive age (15–49 years) who have their need for family planning satisfied with modern contraception methods | ≥99% | 0% | 75·7% | 1·8% | 72 | 4·1% | >99% | >27·3% |
| Indicator 3.7.2: Number of livebirths per 1000 females aged 10–19 years | Undefined | .. | 21·7 per 1000 females | .. | .. | −4·2% | 11·4 per 1000 females | −47·4% |
| Indicator 3.8.1: Coverage of essential health services, as defined by the universal health coverage index | ≥99% | 0% | 67·7 | 2·5% | 97 | 1·8% | 88·3 | 30·4% |
| Indicator 3.9.1: Age-standardised death rate attributable to household air pollution and ambient air pollution | Undefined | .. | 55·6 per 100 000 population | .. | .. | −3·5% | 32·5 per 100 000 population | −41·5% |
| Indicator 3.9.2: Age-standardised death rate attributable to unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene | Undefined | .. | 35·7 per 100 000 population | .. | .. | −7·3% | 11·4 per 100 000 population | −68·1% |
| Indicator 3.9.3: Age-standardised death rate due to unintentional poisonings | Undefined | .. | 1·0 per 100 000 population | .. | .. | −4·7% | 0·5 per 100 000 population | −51·5% |
| Indicator 3.a.1: Age-standardised prevalence of current smoking in populations aged 10 years and older | Undefined | .. | 18·4% | .. | .. | −1·6% | 14·4% | −21·9% |
| Indicator 3.b.1: Coverage of eight vaccines among target populations | ≥99% | 3% | 69·3% | 2·4% | 23 | 5·2% | >99% | >42·7% |
| Indicator 3.c.1: Health worker density (physicians, nurses and midwives, and pharmacists) per 1000 population | Undefined | .. | 5·9 per 1000 population | .. | .. | 4·2% | 10·9 per 1000 population | 85·4% |
| Indicator 5.2.1: Age-standardised prevalence of ever-partnered females aged 15 years and older who experienced physical or sexual violence by a current or former intimate partner in the past 12 months | ≤0·5% | 0% | 13·4% | −21·9% | 100 | −1·4% | 10·9% | −18·5% |
| Indicator 5.2.2: Age-standardised prevalence of females aged 15 years and older who experienced physical or sexual violence by non-intimate partner in the past 12 months | ≤0·5% | 21% | 1·0% | −4·3% | 100 | 0·2% | 1·0% | 3·5% |
| Indicator 6.1.1: Risk-weighted prevalence of populations using unsafe or unimproved water sources, as measured by the summary exposure value for unsafe water | ≤1% | 13% | 34·3% | −23·6% | 100 | −4·3% | 17·7% | −48·3% |
| Indicator 6.2.1a: Risk-weighted prevalence of populations using unsafe or unimproved sanitation, as measured by the summary exposure value for unsafe sanitation | ≤1% | 10% | 31·7% | −23·1% | 100 | −6·2% | 12·2% | −61·4% |
| Indicator 6.2.1b: Risk-weighted prevalence of populations without access to a handwashing facility, as measured by the summary exposure value for unsafe hygiene | ≤1% | 0% | 33·2% | −23·3% | 100 | −2·5% | 22·8% | −31·3% |
| Indicator 7.1.2: Risk-weighted prevalence of household air pollution, as measured by the summary exposure value for household air pollution | ≤1% | 34% | 20·1% | −20·0% | 100 | −8·3% | 5·5% | −72·6% |
| Indicator 8.8.1: Age-standardised all-cause disability-adjusted life-years attributable to occupational risks | Undefined | .. | 830·0 per 100 000 population | .. | .. | −1·7% | 646·2 per 100 000 population | −22·1% |
| Indicator 11.6.2: Population-weighted mean levels of PM2·5 | Undefined | .. | 47·5 | .. | .. | −0·9% | 41·4 | −12·9% |
| Indicator 16.1.1: Age-standardised death rate due to interpersonal violence | Undefined | .. | 5·1 per 100 000 population | .. | .. | −3·3% | 3·1 per 100 000 population | −39·1% |
| Indicator 16.1.2: Death rate due to conflict and terrorism (per 100 000 population) | Undefined | .. | 1·9 per 100 000 population | .. | .. | −47·5% | <0·01 per 100 000 population | −100·0% |
| Indicator 16.1.3a: Age-standardised prevalence of physical violence experienced by populations in the past 12 months | Undefined | .. | 7·8% | .. | .. | −0·1% | 7·7% | −0·9% |
| Indicator 16.1.3c: Age-standardised prevalence of sexual violence experienced by populations in the past 12 months | Undefined | .. | 3·3% | .. | .. | −0·9% | 2·9% | −12·1% |
| Indicator 16.2.3: Age-standardised prevalence of females and males aged 18–29 years who experienced sexual violence by age 18 years | ≤0·5% | 0% | 9·8% | −19·8% | 100 | −0·1% | 9·6% | −1·8% |
| Indicator 17.19.2c: Percentage of well-certified deaths by a vital registration system among a country's total population | ≥80% | 37% | 43·5% | 4·1% | 98 | 1·9% | 57·4% | 32·0% |
Using the global average observed in 2015 for each of the 25 health-related indicators with defined targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required to meet these targets by 2030 (or by 2020 in the case of road injury mortality). The global required annualised rates of change were then compared with country-level annualised rates of change calculated from 1990 to 2015. The percentiles in which the global required annualised rates of change fell among country-level annualised rates of change in the past were ascertained, and then the average of these percentiles was computed (90th percentile) to serve as a way to assess defined SDG targets and potential targets for indicators that do not currently have defined SDG targets. The 90th percentile annualised rates of change observed for each indicator was applied to the global average in 2015 to compute the equivalent average in 2030 and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 if these rates of change are achieved during the SDG era. SDG=Sustainable Development Goal.