Table 3:
Impact of adding BMI-levels on risk adjustment models (measured by MAPE a of cost b and 95% confidence interval b of MAPE)
| Period | Concurrent | Prospective | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type of Cost | Total Cost |
Pharmacy Cost |
Medical Cost |
Total Cost |
Pharmacy Cost |
Medical Cost |
| Base Model 1: Age, Sex | 100.49 (99.80-101.19) |
136.54 (135.79-137.26) |
103.40 (102.65-104.15) |
105.16 (104.43-105.82) |
138.98 (138.35-139.65) |
107.86 (107.09-108.51) |
| Base Model 1 + Four BMI Levels | 99.98 (99.28-100.69) |
135.91 (135.16-136.66) |
103.02 (102.26-103.76) |
104.32 (103.60-104.99) |
138.38 (137.75-139.09) |
107.20 (106.43-107.91) |
| Base Model 2: Age, Sex, Charlson Index | 96.76 (96.11-97.45) |
132.18 (131.42-133.04) |
100.31 (99.61-101.01) |
103.12 (102.45-103.76) |
135.05 (134.34-135.89) |
106.47 (105.66-107.13) |
| Base Model 2 + Four BMI Levels | 96.48 (95.77-97.14) |
131.86 (131.08-132.71) |
100.13 (99.42-100.88) |
102.53 (101.85-103.14) |
134.68 (133.97-135.52) |
105.99 (105.21-106.66) |
| Base Model 3: Age, Sex, ACG Risk Score | 67.71 (66.92-68.58) |
103.63 (102.69-104.90) |
79.28 (78.5-80.06) |
86.26 (85.42-86.99) |
109.17 (108.15-110.46) |
96.86 (96.00-97.52) |
| Base Model 3 + Four BMI Levels | 67.72 (66.92-68.56) |
103.78 (102.81-105.04) |
79.27 (78.50-80.04) |
86.17 (85.36-86.88) |
109.33 (108.28-110.58) |
96.73 (95.85-97.39) |
MAPE: mean absolute prediction error; (b) cost is truncated at top 0.5%; and, (c) 95% confidence interval is generated using 300 runs of different random splitting