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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2019 Dec 1.
Published in final edited form as: Med Care. 2018 Dec;56(12):1042–1050. doi: 10.1097/MLR.0000000000001001

Table 4:

Impact of adding BMI-levels on risk adjustment models (measured by AUC a values and 95% confidence interval b of AUC)

Period Concurrent Prospective
Type of Event Any IP Any ED Top 5%
Total Costs		 Any IP Any ED Top 5%
Total Costs
Base Model 1: Age, Sex 0.602
(0.590-0.614)		 0.524
(0.517-0.530)		 0.595
(0.584-0.604)		 0.602
(0.592-0.615)		 0.516
(0.509-0.524)		 0.603
(0.595-0.615)
Base Model 1 + Four BMI Levels 0.617
(0.605-0.629)		 0.552
(0.545-0.559)		 0.611
(0.600-0.620)		 0.637
(0.624-0.649)		 0.554
(0.546-0.562)		 0.634
(0.624-0.644)
Base Model 2: Age, Sex, Charlson Index 0.664
(0.649-0.676)		 0.583
(0.576-0.590)		 0.661
(0.651-0.671)		 0.639
(0.627-0.651)		 0.556
(0.547-0.564)		 0.649
(0.639-0.660)
Base Model 2 + Four BMI Levels 0.671
(0.658-0.683)		 0.593
(0.586-0.600)		 0.668
(0.659-0.679)		 0.665
(0.652-0.676)		 0.576
(0.568-0.584)		 0.668
(0.658-0.678)
Base Model 3: Age, Sex, ACG Risk Score 0.851
(0.841-0.859)		 0.688
(0.681-0.694)		 0.917
(0.910-0.922)		 0.719
(0.706-0.730)		 0.624
(0.617-0.634)		 0.819
(0.811-0.828)
Base Model 3 + Four BMI Levels 0.849
(0.839-0.859)		 0.684
(0.677-0.690)		 0.916
(0.910-0.922)		 0.728
(0.716-0.738)		 0.626
(0.618-0.634)		 0.822
(0.814-0.831)

area under the curve, also known as c-stat; and, (b) 95% CI is generated using 300 runs of different random splitting