Table 3.

VA Health Care Utilization Model Estimates: Outcome Change Associated with 10% Increase in External Factor

External Determinant	% Change in VA Health Care Utilization Associated with 10% Increase in External Determinant
	All States	Medicaid Expansion States	Medicaid Nonexpansion States
A. Age 18–64
Medicaid eligibility
2014	−0.31% [−0.38%, −0.23%]	−1.63% [−1.80%, −1.46%]	−0.08% [−0.20%, 0.05%]
2013	−0.09% [−0.16%, −0.03%]	−0.65% [−0.76%, −0.54%]	0.12% [0.03%, 0.20%]
2012	0.002% [−0.04%, 0.09%]	−0.39% [−0.51%, −0.28%]	0.08% [−0.008%, 0.17%]
2011	0.03% [−0.05%, 0.09%]	−0.34% [−0.46%, −0.23%]	0.11% [0.02%, 0.21%]
2010	0.25% [0.18%, 0.32%]	0.01% [−0.10%, 0.12%]	0.31% [0.21%, 0.40%]
2009	0.83% [0.74%, 0.92%]	0.61% [0.48%, 0.74%]	1.01% [0.88%, 1.14%]
2008	1.60% [1.49%, 1.71%]	1.40% [1.24%, 1.56%]	1.98% [1.81%, 2.15%]
Housing price index	0.92% [0.65%, 1.20%]	0.60% [0.24%, 0.95%]	0.41% [−0.11%, 0.93%]
No. of MDs per 1,000 population	1.20% [0.95%, 1.44%]	1.06% [0.69%, 1.44%]	1.08% [0.77%, 1.39%]
Veteran unemployment ratio	0.65% [0.32%, 0.98%]	1.46% [0.99%, 1.93%]	0.88% [0.39%, 1.36%]
Employer‐sponsored coverage	−1.40% [−1.97%, −0.83%]	−2.89% [−3.82%, −1.96%]	1.02% [0.24%, 1.79%]
B. Age 65+
Medicaid eligibility
2014	−0.06% [−0.36%, 0.23%]	−0.77% [−1.10%, −0.44%]	1.81% [0.98%, 2.64%]
2013	0.29% [−0.03%, 0.61%]	−0.34% [−0.70%, 0.02%]	1.96% [1.05%, 2.87%]
2012	−0.04% [−0.38%, 0.31%]	−0.62% [−1.01%, −0.23%]	1.47% [0.50%, 2.45%]
2011	−0..26% [−0.61%, 0.09%]	−0.79% [−1.19%, −0.39%]	1.47% [0.47%, 2.48%]
2010	−0.03% [−0.03%, 0.20%]	−0.11% [−0.38%, 0.15%]	0.12% [−0.45%, 0.68%]
2009	−0.009% [−0.28%, 0.26%]	−0.02% [−0.50%, 0.10%]	0.05% [−0.73%, 0.83%]
2008	−0.46% [−0.79%, −0.13%]	−0.54% [−0.91%, −0.17%]	−0.81% [−1.90%, 0.27%]
Housing price index	2.24% [1.89%, 2.59%]	1.84% [1.39%, 2.29%]	2.29% [1.69%, 2.90%]
No. of MDs per 1,000 population	2.47% [2.21%, 2.73%]	2.80% [2.42%, 3.18%]	1.75% [1.39%, 2.11%]

Note: Estimates with 95% confidence interval not including zero are in bold font.