Table 1).
Total number of projected deaths between 2017 and 2030 among individuals aged 25–64 at the most recent observed rate (2016 for AIANs, 2017 for all other groups) and at the model-projected rate, with excess or reduction in deaths in the projection relative to the observed rate. Counts are given by sex, race, and cause of death, estimates rounded to the nearest 100 deaths and 1%.
| Women | Men | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/ Pacific Islander |
American Indian/ Alaska Native |
Total | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/ Pacific Islander |
American Indian/ Alaska Native |
Total | ||
| 2017–2030 Deaths at Most Recent Observed Rate | Accidents | 262500 | 46500 | 36400 | 5900 | 7000 | 603600 | 603600 | 123100 | 135600 | 15000 | 16700 | 894000 |
| Suicides | 82200 | 5100 | 8100 | 3700 | 1400 | 247100 | 247100 | 21000 | 35100 | 9700 | 4300 | 317200 | |
| Cancer | 733600 | 197400 | 132700 | 51900 | 9000 | 846000 | 846000 | 200700 | 142700 | 47500 | 10200 | 1247100 | |
| Heart Disease | 325500 | 143600 | 47900 | 11000 | 6000 | 778600 | 778600 | 248100 | 132100 | 34300 | 13800 | 1206900 | |
| Chronic Liver Disease/Cirrhosis | 80600 | 11700 | 18600 | 1300 | 6100 | 150700 | 150700 | 20100 | 55900 | 4000 | 8800 | 239500 | |
| All | 2287600 | 704500 | 388700 | 106100 | 47300 | 3745100 | 3745100 | 1048900 | 767000 | 159800 | 83000 | 5803800 | |
| 2017–2030 Deaths at Projected Rates | Accidents | 337400 | 37900 | 34500 | 4400 | 8200 | 639500 | 639500 | 79900 | 100600 | 11400 | 15100 | 846500 |
| Suicides | 88100 | 4400 | 7900 | 4000 | 2100 | 259400 | 259400 | 16900 | 29900 | 9200 | 4500 | 319900 | |
| Cancer | 657700 | 165300 | 116700 | 41100 | 9800 | 760000 | 760000 | 145300 | 128600 | 39400 | 12100 | 1085400 | |
| Heart Disease | 349100 | 124800 | 42300 | 9100 | 8400 | 719700 | 719700 | 204200 | 114300 | 31400 | 15100 | 1084700 | |
| Chronic Liver Disease/Cirrhosis | 90400 | 6400 | 15700 | 1300 | 7400 | 140500 | 140500 | 8500 | 38700 | 3500 | 9900 | 201100 | |
| All | 2508700 | 574000 | 328400 | 85700 | 64100 | 3589000 | 3589000 | 734300 | 531000 | 131800 | 84800 | 5070900 | |
| Deaths Averted or in Excess: 2017–2030 (Percentage difference from observed-rate projection) | Accidents | 74900 (↑29%) |
−8600 (↓18%) |
−1900 (↓5%) |
−1500 (↓25%) |
1200 (↑17%) |
64100 (↑18%) |
35900 (↑6%) |
−43200 (↓35%) |
−35000 (↓26%) |
−3600 (↓24%) |
−1600 (↓10%) |
−47500 (↓5%) |
| Suicides | 5900 (↑7%) |
−700 (↓14%) |
−200 (↓2%) |
300 (↑8%) |
700 (↑50%) |
6000 (↑6%) |
12300 (↑5%) |
−4100 (↓20%) |
−5200 (↓15%) |
−500 (↓5%) |
200 (↑5%) |
2700 (↑1%) |
|
| Cancer | −75900 (↓10%) |
−32100 (↓16%) |
−16000 (↓12%) |
−10800 (↓21%) |
800 (↑9%) |
−134000 (↓12%) |
−86000 (↓10%) |
−55400 (↓28%) |
−14100 (↓10%) |
−8100 (↓17%) |
1900 (↑19%) |
−161700 (↓13%) |
|
| Heart Disease | 23600 (↑7%) |
−18800 (↓13%) |
−5600 (↓12%) |
−1900 (↓17%) |
2400 (↑40%) |
−300 (↓0%) |
−58900 (↓8%) |
−43900 (↓18%) |
−17800 (↓13%) |
−2900 (↓8%) |
1300 (↑9%) |
−122200 (↓10%) |
|
| Chronic Liver Disease/Cirrhosis | 9800 (↑12%) |
−5300 (↓45%) |
−2900 (↓16%) |
0 | 1300 (↑21%) |
2900 (↑2%) |
−10200 (↓7%) |
−11600 (↓58%) |
−17200 (↓31%) |
−500 (↓13%) |
1100 (↑13%) |
−38400 (↓16%) |
|
| All | 221100 (↑10%) |
−130500 (↓19%) |
−60300 (↓16%) |
−20400 (↓19%) |
16800 (↑36%) |
26700 (↑1%) |
−156100 (↓4%) |
−314600 (↓30%) |
−236000 (↓31%) |
−28000 (↓18%) |
1800 (↑2%) |
−732900 (↓13%) |
|