Table 1.
Overview of model outcomes
| Type of parameter | Parameter | PCT, mean (95% CI) | Standard of care, mean (95% CI) | Effect, mean (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effectiveness outcomes | ||||
| Hospital stay | ICU stay, days (n) | 14.6 (12.4 to 16.9) | 14.3 (12.5 to 16.1) | 0.3 (− 2.2 to 2.8) |
| General ward stay, days (n) | 16.9 (13.9 to 19.6) | 17.6 (14.5 to 20.8) | − 0.4 (− 4.3 to 3.5) | |
| Organ support | Mechanical ventilation, days (n) | 4.7 (4.0 to 5.6) | 5.4 (4.5 to 6.3) | − 0.6 (− 1.3 to 0.0) |
| Renal replacement therapy, days (n) | 0.8 (0.5 to 1.1) | 0.9 (0.5 to 1.3) | − 0.1 (− 0.5 to 0.2) | |
| Medication | Antibiotics, days (n) | 6.9 (5.6 to 8.5) | 8.2 (7.0 to 9.5) | − 1.2 (− 1.9 to − 0.4) |
| SDD and SOD (n) | 4.0 (0.7 to 8.2) | 4.9 (0.9 to 9.9) | − 0.9 (− 2.1 to − 0.1) | |
| Laboratory tests | Cultures (n) | 4.2 (2.8 to 5.9) | 4.8 (3.2 to 6.5) | − 0.5 (− 1.4 to 0.2) |
| PCT (n) | 6.4 (5.7 to 7.3) | 0.0 (0.0 to 0.0) | 6.4 (5.7 to 7.3) | |
| Other tests (including order tariff) (n) | 14.3 (11.3 to 17.3) | 14.7 (11.8 to 17.7) | − 0.4 (− 2.8 to 2.1) | |
| In-hospital mortality | 21.8% (17.1% to 26.4%) | 29.8% (23.5% to 36.4%) | − 7.9% (− 13.9% to − 1.8%) | |
| QALYs | 0.52 (0.49 to 0.54) | 0.47 (0.43 to 0.51) | 0.05 (0.00 to 0.10) | |
| Cost outcomes | ||||
| Hospital stay | ICU stay | €32,908 (€28,109 to €38,131) | €32,390 (€28,080 to €36,673) | €519 (− €5227 to €6118) |
| General ward stay | €9594 (€6218 to €12,669) | €9972 (€6331 to €13,525) | − €378 (− €2206 to €1300) | |
| Organ support | Mechanical ventilation | €1991 (€1667 to €2369) | €2259 (€1867 to €2671) | − €268 (− €555 to €9) |
| Renal replacement therapy | €362 (€244 to €500) | €408 (€247 to €592) | − €46 (− €217 to €116) | |
| Medication | Antibiotics | €203 (€131 to €283) | €237 (€168 to €317) | − €35 (− €73 to €6) |
| SDD and SOD | €127 (€32 to €226) | €157 (€42 to €267) | − €30 (− €64 to − €1) | |
| Laboratory tests | Cultures | €109 (€72 to €151) | €122 (€81 to €165) | − €13 (− €34 to €6) |
| PCT | €204 (€181 to €232) | €0 (€0 to €0) | €204 (€181 to €232) | |
| Other tests (including order tariff) | €584 (€484 to €677) | €602 (€502 to €707) | − €19 (− €96 to €56) | |
| Total hospital costs | €46,081 (€38,242 to €54,120) | €46,146 (€39,383 to €53,042) | − €65 (− €6314 to €6107) | |
| Healthcare costs (follow up) | €27,585 (€26,031 to €29,261) | €24,815 (€22,311 to €27,056) | €2770 (€136 to €5550) | |
| Total healthcare costs (up to 1 year follow up) | €73,665 (€66,065 to €81,344) | €70,961 (€64,776 to €77,082) | €2704 (− €4495 to €10,005) | |
| Lost productivity | €6982 (€6582 to €7370) | €6923 (€6570 to €7276) | €59 (− €364 to €485) | |
| Total societal costs (up to 1 year follow up) | €80,647 (€72,918 to €88,401) | €77,884 (€71,604 to €84,116) | €2763 (− €4491 to €10,172) | |
This table shows an overview of the model outcomes in terms of mean effectiveness and costs on an individual patient level. The mean model outcomes (and accompanying 95% CIs) are shown for the procalcitonin (PCT) group and the standard of care group. In addition, the differences between these groups (and accompanying 95% CIs) are provided
SDD selective digestive decontamination, SOD selective oral decontamination, QALY quality-adjusted life year