Table 2.
Description and value of demographic and epidemiological parameters.
| Description (dimension) | Value | References | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic parameters | |||
| Fertility rate of subadult females, maximum (births per female, annual) | 0.30 | * | |
| η A | Fertility rate of adult females (births per female, annual) | 0.90 | 72;* |
| η O | Fertility rate of old adult females (births per female, annual) | 0.90 | 72;* |
| η VO | Fertility rate of very old adult females (births per female, annual) | 0.50 | * |
| Probability of mortality of newborns, minimum (annual) | 0.362 | 77 | |
| Probability of mortality of newborns, maximum (annual) | 0.85 | | | |
| Probability of mortality of juveniles, minimum (annual) | 0.218 | * | |
| Probability of mortality of juveniles, maximum (annual) | 0.90 | | | |
| μ Sa♀ | Probability of mortality of subadult females (annual) | 0.052 | * |
| μ Sa♂ | Probability of mortality of subadult males (annual) | 0.068 | * |
| μ A♀ | Probability of mortality of adult females (annual) | 0.037 | * |
| μ A♂ | Probability of mortality of adult males (annual) | 0.048 | * |
| μ O♀ | Probability of mortality of old adult females (annual) | 0.078 | * |
| μ O♂ | Probability of mortality of old adult males (annual) | 0.100 | * |
| μ VO♀ | Probability of mortality of very old adult females (annual) | 0.146 | * |
| μ VO♂ | Probability of mortality of very old adult males (annual) | 0.185 | * |
| δ | Sex ratio | 0.50 | † |
| K | Carrying capacity | 2,000 | † |
| d | Strength of density dependence | 0.0014 | * |
| Epidemiological parameters | |||
| 1/α | Duration of maternal immunity (days) | 60 | † |
| 1/γ | Duration of viraemia (days) | 51 | 79 |
| 1/ω | Duration of acquired immunity (years) | 8 | 80 |
| ρ | Probability of abortion | 0.50 | 85 |
| β T | Horizontal transmission coefficient by a transiently infected animal (per day) | 0.01 | ‡ |
| β P | Horizontal transmission coefficient by a PI animal (per day) | 0.48 | ‡ |
| μ T | Probability of mortality related to a transient infection (over the duration of viraemia) | 0.76 | ‡ |
| μ P | Probability of mortality of PI animals (annual) | 0.75 | 90 |
*Calibrated using field data.
|Calibrated to reach K at the disease-free equilibrium.
†Experts knowledge.
‡Approximate Bayesian Computation (see results in Supplementary Fig. S6).