Fig. 3.

Median size of patch populations over time for 1000 computational simulation trials. After the initial forcing period, median patch population size fluctuates but remains at a low level for extended periods of time, here over 1000 days. The metapopulation persists at an equilibrium between patch population births and deaths, with the rates of each affected by transmission and cleaning. At any point during this time period, a jackpot even could occur which results in a secondary active infection that would start a new forcing period. Median population size for surface patches (in yellow, not visible) remains close to 0 throughout timeframe. After approximately 1000 days, the other patch type populations also persist at extremely small median sizes. Median time to metapopulation extinction in our simulation trials was 506 days