Table 3.
Univariate analysis of predictors for tumor downstaging in the training and validation cohorts
| Variable | Training cohort | Validation cohort | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good downstaging | Poor downstaging | P | Good downstaging | Poor downstaging | P | |
| No. of patients | 20 | 51 | 26 | 49 | ||
| Age (mean, y ± SD) | 58 ± 10 | 52 ± 13 | 0.101 | 54 ± 10 | 55 ± 13 | 0.630 |
| Gender | 0.671 | 0.701 | ||||
| Male | 14 (70%) | 33 (65%) | 11 (42%) | 23 (47%) | ||
| Female | 6 (30%) | 18 (35%) | 15 (58%) | 26 (53%) | ||
| Pretreatment T stage | 0.009 | 0.125 | ||||
| T2 | 0 | 0 | 2 (8%) | 4 (8%) | ||
| T3 | 19 (95%) | 33 (65%) | 24 (92%) | 38 (78%) | ||
| T4 | 1 (5%) | 18 (35) | 0 | 7 (14%) | ||
| Pretreatment N stage | 0.160 | 0.858 | ||||
| N0 | 2 (10%) | 10 (20%) | 8 (31%) | 13 (26%) | ||
| N1 | 12 (60%) | 18 (35%) | 12 (46%) | 22 (45%) | ||
| N2 | 6 (30%)) | 23 (45%) | 6 (23%) | 14 (29%) | ||
| Tumor differentiation | 0.020 | 0.818 | ||||
| Well/Moderately | 14 (70%) | 20 (40%) | 19 (73%) | 37 (76%) | ||
| Poorly/Undifferentiated | 6 (30%) | 31 (60%) | 7 (27%) | 12 (24%) | ||
| Distance from the anal verge | 0.327 | 0.235 | ||||
| ≦5 cm | 8 (40%) | 27 (53%) | 8 (31%) | 22 (45%) | ||
| > 5 cm | 12 (60%) | 24 (47) | 18 (69%) | 27 (55%) | ||
| Tumor length | 0.058 | 0.267 | ||||
| ≦4 cm | 12 (60%) | 18 (65%) | 13 (50%) | 18 (37%) | ||
| > 4 cm | 8 (40%) | 33 (35%) | 13 (50%) | 31 (63%) | ||
| Circumferential extent | 0.065 | 0.856 | ||||
| ≦50% | 8 (40%) | 9 (18%) | 9 (35%) | 18 (37%) | ||
| > 50% | 12 (60%) | 42 (82%) | 17 (65%) | 31 (63%) | ||
| Pre- treatment CEA level (mean, ng/mL; 95%CI) | 23 (14–33) | 28 (19–39) | 0.551 | 17 (12–22) | 13 (11–15) | 0.066 |
| Post- treatment CEA level (mean, ng/mL; 95%CI) | 5 (0.2–9) | 6 (4–8) | 0.680 | 6 (4–9) | 6 (4–7) | 0.712 |
| Normalization of post- treatment CEA Level | 0.124 | 0.600 | ||||
| Normal (< 5 ng/mL) | 16 (80%) | 31 (61%) | 17 (65%) | 29 (60%) | ||
| Elevated (≧ 5 ng/mL) | 4 (20%) | 20 (39%) | 9 (35%) | 20 (40%) | ||
| CEA clearance pattern | 0.001 | 0.007 | ||||
| Exponential decrease (R2≧0.9) | 15 (75%) | 16 (31%) | 18 (69%) | 18 (37%) | ||
| Non-exponential decrease (R2 < 0.9) | 5 (25%) | 35 (69%) | 8 (31%) | 31 (63%) | ||
| Concurrent chemotherapy | 0.601 | NA | ||||
| Capecitabine | 0 | 0 | 26 (35%) | 49 (65%) | ||
| Infusional fluorouracil | 10 (50%) | 29 (57%) | 0 | 0 | ||
| mFOLFOX6 | 10 (50%) | 22 (43%) | 0 | 0 | ||
Abbreviation: NA not applicable
The p value in boldface means statistically significant, that is, less than 0.05