Figure. Effect of Varying Market Share Erosion, Cost of Capital, and Cost of Investment on Net Return (Cost to Consumers) and Ratio of Net Return to Cost of Investment.

Each bar represents the net return (cost to consumers) and ratio of net return to cost of investment (y axis) achieved by adjusting a single variable in our analysis (x axis). Varying market share erosion between 50% and 80% changed the $176.0 million median net return from $114.5 million to $229.6 million. When cost of capital is varied between 15% and 5%, the median net return ranged from $150.4 million to $192.9 million. Varying clinical trial cost estimates (by using either 5× or 1× multipliers instead of 3×) produced a median net return of between $132.5 million and $209.5 million. When varying market share erosion between 50% and 80%, the 680% median ratio of net return to cost of investment ranged between 500% and 860%, When cost of capital is varied between 15% and 5%, the median ratio of net return to cost of investment ranged from 420% to 900%. Varying clinical trial cost estimates (by using either 5× or 1× multipliers instead of 3×) produced a median ratio of net return to cost of investment of between 370% and 2230%.