Table 2:

Infections averted amongst people who inject drugs and the relative decrease in incidence between 2008 and 2015 for the different scenarios of interventions being scaled-up from 2008. Ranges in brackets are 95% credibility intervals.

Change from 2008 to 2015 compared to counterfactual	Mean number of infections	Mean infections averted (95% CrI)	Mean relative decrease in incidence
No change (i.e. no intervention scale-up or decrease in proportion high-risk)	6353 (3450–9728)	N/A	27.4% (17.6−37.0%)
Scale-up of OST and high coverage NSP only	5337 (3035–8329)	1016 (308−1996)	47.3% (30.0−62.7%)
Scale-up of OST and high coverage NSP plus decrease in high-risk status	4933 (2714–7767)	1420 (613−2544)	57.9% (41.1−72.3%)
Scale-up of OST and high coverage NSP plus decrease in high risk status plus increase in HCV treatment	4861 (2646–7681)	1492 (657−2646)	61.3% (45.1−75.3%)

Projections are means of model fits, with 95% credibility intervals in brackets