Table 4. Predicted potential distribution of Cynara baetica, with model performance details.
The three most important variables for each model are included.
|
Model |
AUC±sd | Maximum training sensitivity plus specificity logistic threshold | Total predicted area (km2) | Difference respect to present (km2 and %) | Overlap with present (km2 and %) |
Main variables |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Present | ||||||
| Cynara baetica | 0.977 ± 0.006 | 0.0329 | 107,963 | —- | —- | pH > bio18 ≈ bio19 |
| C. baetica subsp. baetica | 0.980 ± 0.010 | 0.0246 | 31,726 | —- | —- | pH > bio18 > bio19 |
| C. baetica subsp. maroccana | 0.986 ± 0.009 | 0.0784 | 35,826 | —- | —- | bio19 > altitude ≈ bio18 |
| LGM-CCSM | 0.944 ± 0.032 | 0.0619 | 153,928 | 45,965 (42.57%) | 40,390 (37.41%) | bio18 > bio19 > bio8 |
| LGM-MIROC | 0.956 ± 0.030 | 0.0582 | 335,398 | 227,435 (210.66%) | 72,163 (66.84%) | bio18 > bio19 > bio8 |
| Average LGM | —- | —- | 244,663 | 136,700 (126.62%) | 56,276 (52.13%) | —- |
| 2070-GFDL-2.6 | ||||||
| Cynara baetica | 0.965 ± 0.018 | 0.0253 | 50,337 | -57,626 (-53.38%) | 45,354 (42.01%) | pH > bio18 ≈ bio19 |
| C. baetica subsp. baetica | 0.973 ± 0.018 | 0.0214 | 14,802 | -16,924 (-53.34%) | 10,473 (33.01%) | pH > bio18 > bio19 |
| C. baetica subsp. maroccana | 0.974 ± 0.036 | 0.0772 | 6,519 | -29,307 (-81.80%) | 5,877 (16.40%) | bio19 > bio18 > altitude |
| 2070-GFDL-8.5 | ||||||
| Cynara baetica | 0.968 ± 0.019 | 0.0230 | 21,059 | -86,904 (-80.49%) | 11,668 (10.81%) | pH > bio18 ≈ bio19 |
| C. baetica subsp. baetica | 0.977 ± 0.014 | 0.0256 | 1,284 | -30,442 (-95.95%) | 1,207 (3.80%) | pH > bio18 > bio19 |
| C. baetica subsp. maroccana | 0.968 ± 0.041 | 0.0589 | 3,102 | -32,724 (-91.34%) | 1,958 (5.47%) | bio19 > bio18 > altitude |
| 2070-MPI-2.6 | ||||||
| Cynara baetica | 0.959 ± 0.025 | 0.0272 | 49,970 | -57,993 (-53.72%) | 48,964 (45.35%) | pH > bio18 ≈ bio19 |
| C. baetica subsp. baetica | 0.970 ± 0.017 | 0.0374 | 25,879 | -5,937 (-18.71%) | 24,205 (76.29%) | pH > bio18 > bio19 |
| C. baetica subsp. maroccana | 0.966 ± 0.041 | 0.0355 | 30,063 | -5,763 (-16.09%) | 22,809 (63.67%) | bio19 > bio18 > altitude |
| 2070-MPI-8.5 | ||||||
| Cynara baetica | 0.962 ± 0.018 | 0.0224 | 18,612 | -89,801 (-83.18%) | 15,252 (14.13%) | pH > bio18 ≈ bio19 |
| C. baetica subsp. baetica | 0.972 ± 0.016 | 0.0215 | 14,937 | -16,789 (-52.92%) | 11,835 (37.30%) | pH > bio18 > bio19 |
| C. baetica subsp. maroccana | 0.972 ± 0.039 | 0.0718 | 10,295 | -25,531 (-71.26%) | 7,854 (21.92%) | bio19 > bio18 > altitude |
| Average 2070 | ||||||
| Cynara baetica | —- | —- | 34,995 | -72,968 (-67.59%) | 30,310 (28.07%) | —- |
| C. baetica subsp. baetica | —- | —- | 14,226 | -17,500 (-55.16%) | 11,930 (37.60%) | —- |
| C. baetica subsp. maroccana | —- | —- | 12,495 | -23,331 (-65.12%) | 9,625 (52.13%) | —- |