Table 5:

Policy predictions of cigarette type choice shares and percentage changes in shares across alternative flavors

	Panel A Permitted flavors by cigarette type				Panel B Cigarette type choice shares (%)			Panel C Change in choice shares (%)
	Combustible cigarettes		E-cigarettes
	Menthol	Fruit/sweet	Menthol	Fruit/sweet	Combustible cigarette	E-cigarette	None of these	Combustible cigarette	E-cigarette	None of these
Policy
Current US policy	Allowed	Banned	Allowed	Allowed	45.2	37.5	17.2	n/a	n/a	n/a
Alternative 1b	Ban	Ban	Ban	Ban	47.9	29.6	22.4	2.7	−7.9	5.2
Alternative 2	Ban	Ban	Allow	Ban	45.8	32.8	21.4	0.6	−4.7	4.2
Alternative 3a	Ban	Ban	Allow	Allow	40.0	41.3	18.8	−5.2	3.8	1.6
Alternative 4	Ban	Ban	Ban	Allow	41.7	38.8	19.4	−3.5	1.3	2.2
Alternative 5	Allow	Ban	Ban	Ban	53.5	26.4	20.2	8.3	−11.1	3

Notes: Each row corresponds to a policy scenario; these are defined also in Table 1. Panel A, “Permitted flavors by cigarette type”, shows the availability of menthol and fruit/sweet flavors for combustible cigarettes and e-cigarettes: “Allowed” or “Allow” shows when the flavor is permitted; “Banned” or “Ban” shows when the flavor is banned. Panel B, “Cigarette type choice shares,” shows the percentage of predicted choices for each product. Panel C, “Change in choice shares,” shows the percentage change in predicted choices from the current U.S. policy to the policy scenario, which is the difference between the current policy and the predicted policy share(s).

^adenotes the policy with the largest predicted reduction in combustible cigarette choice

^bdenotes the policy with the largest increase in the “None of these” option. There may be error from rounding in the estimates.